Introduction to BBVA Mexico’s Credit Outlook
According to BBVA Mexico’s report titled “Situación Banca,” consumer credit growth is expected to continue its deceleration through 2026. In September, the real annual growth of existing consumer credit stood at 9.4%, down from approximately 14% in March.
Consumer Credit Slowdown: Reasons and Impact
Mariana Torán, Chief Economist at BBVA Mexico, explained that the slowdown is primarily due to reduced employment and real wage growth. The report highlights that the sluggish internal market has led to a deceleration in home loans, while external demand has accelerated financing for businesses.
- The reduction in double-digit real growth in the consumer credit segment began from the second quarter of the current year.
- This is partly due to the absence of base effects from Cetelem’s acquisition by Inbursa and lower formal employment and real wage growth.
However, Jorge Campos, Senior Economist at BBVA Mexico, noted that new entrants in the market and household demand for consumer credit to sustain consumption amidst weakened income sources could support the growth.
Personal Loans vs. Other Credit Segments
According to the report, personal loans remain the only segment not reducing their growth momentum. Nevertheless, their delinquency rates have increased.
- Credit card and salary loans have seen a decrease in delinquency compared to December 2024.
Housing Credit Slowdown
The report also indicates that housing credit expansion has moderated, with a 1.6% growth rate in September.
The average real growth rate of housing credit dropped from 3.1% in 2024 to 2.4% in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting the delayed labor market slowdown.
Delinquency and Provisions
Mariana Torán stated that delinquency in the banking sector has been well-contained, despite minor increases in some segments.
Provisions for future losses remain stable, indicating that necessary precautions are being taken in case of credit deterioration. So far, no such deterioration has been observed.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the main prediction regarding consumer credit growth? BBVA Mexico expects a continued slowdown in consumer credit growth through at least the first half of 2026.
- What factors are contributing to the slowdown in consumer credit? The primary reasons include reduced employment opportunities, stagnant real wage growth, and the absence of base effects from Cetelem’s acquisition by Inbursa.
- Which credit segment is still experiencing growth? Personal loans remain the only segment with growth momentum, although delinquency rates have increased.
- How is the housing credit segment performing? Housing credit growth has moderated, with a 1.6% growth rate in September, reflecting labor market slowdown.
- What is the current status of delinquency and provisions in the banking sector? Delinquency is well-contained, with minor increases in some segments. Provisions for future losses remain stable.
