Overview of CESF’s Recent Assessment
The Council for Financial System Stability (CESF), comprising various financial sector authorities, highlighted after its latest meeting that the available information is still limited to determine the national economic activity dynamics during the fourth quarter of 2025.
However, they noted that indicators suggest a slight uptick compared to the third quarter, and recovery is anticipated for 2026 and 2027. This, though, is subject to certain downside risks given the challenging environment facing the Mexican economy.
“Nevertheless, the sovereign credit rating maintains an investment grade from all agencies evaluating it,” explained CESF.
Stable and Resilient Financial System
CESF emphasized that, in this environment, the Mexican financial system remains solid and resilient overall, allowing it to absorb shocks and maintain proper functioning even in the face of adverse scenarios.
“This is primarily due to commercial banks having capital and liquidity levels that comfortably meet regulatory minimum requirements,” stressed CESF.
Global Economic Uncertainty
At the global level, CESF pointed out that economic activity is expected to continue moderating compared to the previous quarter, resulting from lower growth in both advanced and emerging economies.
They mentioned that while recent growth projections for the global economy still anticipate a slowdown in 2025 and 2026, it is more moderate than previously expected, followed by partial recovery in 2027.
“Nonetheless, the global economic outlook remains subject to high uncertainty, particularly regarding potential effects of tariffs imposed by the United States,” argued CESF.
They added that global financial markets have shown relatively stable behavior, with occasional moderate volatility linked to uncertainty caused by lack of post-government operation economic releases, cautious sentiment due to high valuations in the technology sector and capital markets, as well as fiscal concerns in some developed economies.
Persisting Global Risks
In this context, CESF noted that some global risks persist, and their materialization could impact financial stability.
Key Questions and Answers
- What did CESF say about the Mexican economy’s outlook? CESF anticipates a recovery in the Mexican economy during 2026 and 2027, but acknowledges certain downside risks due to the challenging environment.
- How is the Mexican financial system positioned? The Mexican financial system maintains a solid and resilient stance, with commercial banks having ample capital and liquidity to meet regulatory requirements.
- What are the global economic prospects according to CESF? Global economic activity is expected to moderate, with a projected slowdown in growth for both advanced and emerging economies in 2025 and 2026, followed by partial recovery in 2027.
- What global risks does CESF highlight? CESF points to persisting global risks, including potential effects of tariffs imposed by the United States and fiscal concerns in some developed economies, which could impact financial stability.
