Overview of the Situation
The commercial bank credit to the private sector continued its slowdown in September, with all three main components—consumer spending, housing, and businesses—showing reduced growth. According to the Monetary Aggregates and Financial Activity report published by Banco de México (Banxico) on Friday, the bank credit grew by 4.4% in real annual comparison for September, down from 4.7% in August. This resulted in a portfolio balance of 7.10 trillion pesos, marking the lowest growth since the beginning of 2025 and a consistent slowdown over recent months.
Economic Slowdown and Job Market Impact
Experts suggest that a slower economy and formal employment have contributed to the credit slowdown. The consumer credit segment has shown the most growth, albeit with its own deceleration. In September, consumer credit increased by 9.1% annually compared to 9.4% in August, surpassing 1.81 trillion pesos.
Consumer Credit Breakdown
- Credit card credit grew by 7.7% (from 8.3% in August).
- Salary credit increased by 4.7% (from 4.4%).
- Personal loans rose by 10.3% (from 9.9%).
The durable consumer goods (DCG) credit segment increased by 16.9% (from 17.7% in August), with automotive credit being the primary component, growing by 18.1%.
Housing and Business Credit
The housing credit portfolio grew by 1.6% in September (from 2.0% in August), reaching a balance over 1.46 trillion pesos.
Credit for businesses and individuals with commercial activity increased by 3.6% annually (from 4.3% in August), surpassing 3.67 trillion pesos.
Notably, electricity, water and light, mass media information, mining, and agricultural, forestry, and fishing sectors experienced the largest declines in September.
ABM’s Outlook
Despite the slowdown, the Mexican Banking Association (ABM) anticipates that credit growth will persist by year-end. They expect a real growth of 4.6% and nominal growth of 8.8%, with a PIB forecast of 0.7%. ABM’s president, Emilio Romano, highlighted that credit as a proportion of GDP increased by 1.8% over the past year, reaching 37.5%, demonstrating economic stability and banking sector robustness.
Rising Delinquency
In this context, the vencido (overdue) portfolio in commercial banking has shown a slight increase. According to the National Banking and Securities Commission (CNBV), the overall moral index (Imor) for banks was 2.16% in August, up marginally from 2.13% the previous month and 2.03% in the same period of 2024.
Third Quarter Performance
In their latest third-quarter results reports, some major banks reported positive growth in their credit portfolios. BBVA Mexico saw an interannual growth of 9.6%, aiming to reach 2 trillion pesos in credit portfolio by year-end.
Santander Mexico reported a 6.0% annual advance but a slight quarterly decline of 0.6%.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the main issue discussed in this article? The slowdown of commercial bank credit to the private sector in September 2025, with all three main components—consumer spending, housing, and businesses—showing reduced growth.
- What factors are contributing to the credit slowdown? A slower economy and formal employment have been cited as key factors by experts.
- Which credit segment has shown the most growth? Consumer credit has demonstrated the highest growth, although it too has experienced deceleration.
- What is the ABM’s outlook for credit growth in 2025? The Mexican Banking Association expects credit growth to persist, with a real growth of 4.6% and nominal growth of 8.8% by year-end.
- What is the current state of delinquency in commercial banking? The vencido (overdue) portfolio has shown a slight increase, with the overall moral index (Imor) at 2.16% in August.
