Introduction to the Economic Forecast
According to a survey conducted by Citigroup, experts anticipate that Mexico’s GDP will grow by 0.10% in 2025, marking a slight improvement from the previous quinquennial forecasts. This positive trend comes after several consecutive weeks of upward revisions, with the latest expectations now at 3.85% for inflation.
Inflation and Interest Rates
The experts consulted by Citigroup have revised their inflation expectations upwards from 3.80% to 3.85%, reflecting an increasing pressure on prices. In response, they predict that the Bank of Mexico will raise its benchmark interest rate to 7.50% by the end of 2025, continuing the normalization cycle initiated in March 2024. Most strategists (29 out of 32) expect another 50 basis points reduction in the rate during the scheduled decision on June 26, while five anticipate a smaller adjustment of 25 basis points.
Mixed Growth Expectations
Among the 34 strategists surveyed, 12 predict a contraction in Mexico’s GDP growth for 2024, up from just four at the start of April. A majority of 20 strategists expect growth below 1%, ranging between 0% and 0.7%. Only three strategists—Oxford Economics, Intercam, and Banamex—forecast zero growth for 2025.
Anticipated Recovery in 2026
Despite the cautious outlook for 2024, experts are optimistic about a recovery in 2026. The average growth projection for Mexico’s GDP is 1.5% for 2026, with estimates ranging from 2% (Banorte, Barclays, and HSBC) to a minimum of 0.2% (BNP Paribas). Inflation is expected to vary annually at 3.77%, with a downward trend from the current year’s observations.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the current GDP growth prediction for Mexico in 2025? Experts consulted by Citigroup predict a GDP growth of 0.10% for Mexico in 2025.
- How do experts anticipate inflation to evolve in Mexico? Inflation is expected to vary annually at 3.77% in Mexico, with a downward trend from the current year’s observations.
- What is the projected interest rate by the Bank of Mexico by the end of 2025? Experts predict that the Bank of Mexico will raise its benchmark interest rate to 7.50% by the end of 2025.
- How many strategists expect a contraction in Mexico’s GDP growth for 2024? Twelve out of 34 strategists surveyed by Citigroup anticipate a contraction in Mexico’s GDP growth for 2024.
- What is the average GDP growth projection for Mexico in 2026? The average growth projection for Mexico’s GDP is 1.5% for 2026.
