Background on Remittances and Their Importance
Remittances, or the funds sent by migrants to their families in Mexico, are a crucial part of the country’s economy. In 2024, Mexico received a record-breaking $64,745 million in remittances from the United States. However, expectations for 2025 are divided among experts.
Divergent Forecasts for Remittances in 2025
Gabriela Siller, the economic analysis director at Banco Base, anticipates a 2.60% increase in remittances compared to the 2025 flow. However, she clarifies that they will still fall short of the 2024 historical peak.
Conversely, BBVA economists predict a lower remittance flow, bringing the total to $60,000 million—indicating another decline.
Impact of the 1% Remittance Tax
Starting in 2026, a 1% tax on international remittances sent from the U.S. will be implemented. According to BBVA experts, led by José Juan Li Ng, Mexicans might pay approximately $3,000 million in remittance taxes between 2026 and 2034, assuming three out of ten remittance dollars reach Mexico.
The tax could potentially stimulate higher remittance flows in December, but the annual variation rate is still expected to remain negative.
“Undocumented migrants who cannot send remittances via bank accounts or credit/debit cards might choose to expedite their transfers during November and December to avoid the tax,” BBVA experts suggest.
Projected Remittance Levels in 2025 and Beyond
Should remitters indeed increase their sendings to circumvent the tax, the remittance scenario could temporarily improve. BBVA estimates that this might result in an accumulated level close to $61,700 million, representing a 4.7% annual decline.
Banco Base’s expert mentioned that, as of November 2025, there have been 21 months of irregular remittance behavior. Instead of consecutive growth months, there has been an average annual contraction of 1.42%.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the current state of remittances in Mexico? Remittances have experienced irregular behavior for 21 months, with an average annual contraction of 1.42%.
- What are the differing opinions on 2025 remittance forecasts? Gabriela Siller from Banco Base expects a 2.60% increase, while BBVA economists predict a decrease to $60,000 million.
- How might the new remittance tax affect sendings? The 1% tax could motivate increased December sendings, but the annual variation rate is still expected to be negative.
- What are the projected remittance levels for 2025 and beyond? BBVA estimates that remittances could reach approximately $61,700 million in 2025, with a 4.7% annual decline.
