Private Sector Experts Adjust Mexico’s Growth Expectations Downward
Private sector experts have once again reduced their outlook for Mexico’s economic growth in 2025, now predicting a mere 0.37% expansion of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), according to a survey by Mexico’s central bank, Banxico.
Recent Adjustments
These experts, consulted by Banxico, have lowered their growth expectation for the country for the third consecutive month, moving away from their initial forecast of 1.07%.
- Previous month’s growth expectation: 0.39%
- Current month’s growth expectation: 0.37%
Divergence from Government Expectations
This outlook contrasts with the expectations of Mexico City’s Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum’s government. According to the Secretariat of Fiscal and Credit Services (SHCP), the economy is expected to grow between 0.5% and 1.5% this year.
“The economy in general continues to perform relatively well… For the next quarter, we expect things to even improve,” said Rodrigo Mariscal Paredes, head of the Economic Planning Unit at SHCP in previous statements.
However, data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) shows a 0.3% trimesterly decline and a 0.2% annual decrease in the third quarter of this year.
Inflation Forecast
Regarding inflation expectations, experts still anticipate it to remain within Banxico’s target range of 3% ±1 percentage point by year-end. However, due to recent pressures, they have slightly increased their forecast.
- Previous inflation forecast: 3.75%
- Current inflation forecast: 3.77%
Future Inflation Projections
For the following year, private sector analysts have also revised their growth projection downward from 1.29% to 1.21%.
Inflation is expected to stay within the target range but won’t reach the precise 3% goal. Instead, it is projected to close 2026 at 3.93%, higher than this year’s level.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What is the current growth outlook for Mexico’s economy by private sector experts?
A: Private sector experts now predict a GDP growth of just 0.37% for Mexico in 2025, down from their initial forecast of 1.07%.
- Q: How do these expectations compare to the government’s outlook?
A: The Mexican government, led by Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, expects the economy to grow between 0.5% and 1.5% this year, which is higher than the private sector’s current outlook.
- Q: What are the recent inflation expectations and how do they compare to Banxico’s target range?
A: Experts predict an inflation rate of 3.77% for the end of 2025, slightly higher than the previous forecast of 3.75%. This rate is still within Banxico’s target range of 3% ±1 percentage point, but it won’t reach the precise 3% goal.
