Global Market Expansion
The global food services market, encompassing everything from restaurant kitchens to dining tables, is projected to reach over $4 trillion by 2025, according to estimates from Fortune Business Insights. This figure represents a growth of more than 15% compared to 2024, when the industry was valued at $3.5 trillion.
This global expansion reflects a robust recovery post-pandemic, driven by increased dining out, the rise of food delivery apps, and the diversification of culinary models such as dark kitchens.
Mexico’s Moderate Growth
However, Mexico’s growth is expected to be more moderate, with an estimated 4% increase by 2025, according to the National Chamber of the Restaurant and Condiment Industry (CANIRAC). This is lower than the global projection and some international consultancies’ estimates of up to 10% annual growth for Mexico.
Factors influencing this moderation include the current economic context, rising operational costs, and inflation effects, which have tempered optimism among Mexican restaurant owners.
Reasons for Global Market Growth
- Increased Dining Out: People are eating out more frequently, whether for work or convenience, from cafes to international chains.
- Delivery Boom: Apps like Uber Eats, Didi Food, and Rappi have revolutionized the food business, even in emerging markets.
- New Operating Models: The rise of dark kitchens and no-dining room models has allowed many entrepreneurs to cut costs and reach more consumers.
- Culinary Tourism: In many countries, including Mexico, food is a leading motivation for travel.
Mexico’s Case: Slow but Steady Recovery
Despite limited growth, Mexico has shown a sustained recovery since 2022. Key factors include digitalization, the emergence of new local brands, growth in national and foreign franchises, and the gradual return of tourism.
Moreover, according to IMARC Group, Mexico’s quick-service restaurants (QSR) are expected to grow steadily, reaching over $25 billion by 2030 due to their technological adaptability and affordable prices.
Structural Challenges
- High Operational Costs: Energy, gas, rents, and wages remain significant challenges.
- Formal vs Informal Operations: Nearly 40% of the sector operates informally, distorting the market and limiting government support.
- Staff Turnover: Retaining talent in kitchen and service roles remains a major challenge.
- Increasing Regulation: New regulations like the “Silla Law” and stricter health inspections require additional investments for businesses.
Despite these challenges, the food and beverage sector in Mexico remains crucial to the economy, contributing nearly 2% to the national GDP and directly employing over 2 million people, according to CANIRAC data.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What is driving the global food services market growth?
A: The growth is driven by increased dining out, the boom of food delivery apps, and new culinary models like dark kitchens. - Q: Why is Mexico’s food services market growth expected to be more moderate?
A: Factors such as the current economic context, rising operational costs, and inflation have tempered optimism among Mexican restaurant owners. - Q: What are the structural challenges facing Mexico’s food services sector?
A: High operational costs, the formal vs informal operations dichotomy, staff turnover, and increasing regulation pose challenges.
