Introduction
According to the OECD and FAO’s report, Perspectivas Agrícolas 2025–2035, global meat consumption is expected to grow by 13% over the next decade, driven primarily by chicken. Beef and pork consumption will either stagnate or decline, particularly in Europe and North America, as consumers seek more sustainable and healthier options.
Chicken’s Rise to Prominence
Chicken is set to be the big winner, with its consumption projected to grow by over 20% and reach 173 million tonnes. This growth is attributed to its affordability, lower environmental impact, and high protein content. In contrast, beef and pork consumption will either stagnate or decrease in several countries, especially in Europe and North America.
Per Capita Consumption
On an individual level, average consumption per person will only slightly increase, reaching approximately 29 kilograms of meat annually. This figure indicates a more moderate demand compared to previous years.
Efficient Production with Lower Environmental Impact
Global meat production will become increasingly efficient, with a projected 13% growth by 2035. This growth will be fueled by Asia and Latin America, which will contribute the majority of the increase. Technological advancements, genetic improvements, and better feed management will enable animals to reach greater weights at slaughter, resulting in more meat with fewer resources.
Beef
Thanks to these improvements, greenhouse gas emissions from the sector will only increase by 6%, despite total production growing more than twice as fast. This indicates that meat production will become less polluting per unit, although environmental pressure remains a significant challenge for the industry.
China’s Changing Role in Global Meat Trade
For years, China has been the primary driver of global meat trade. However, this trend is beginning to shift. China will reduce its reliance on imports, dropping from representing a fifth of the global total to just a sixth by 2035.
This change will alter international flows: global meat trade is expected to grow by only 10% in the next decade, a figure far below previous expansion rates. In 2024, a slight uptick of 2% in exports was already observed, driven by countries like Brazil, Australia, and the United States, which benefit from abundant production and competitive costs.
Price Fluctuations
In the short term, meat prices will remain high, especially beef and lamb, due to many countries rebuilding their livestock herds. However, by midway through the next decade, prices are expected to gradually decrease: chicken and pork could become 20% cheaper, while beef and lamb around 8%, adjusted for inflation.
Chicken
This will occur as animal feed costs decrease and productivity increases, allowing more meat to be offered without raising final prices. In simple terms: meat will remain expensive in the short term, but not to the point of becoming unaffordable.
New Risks Facing the Sector
The report warns that the industry will face significant challenges, including outbreaks of diseases like avian influenza or African swine fever, new environmental regulations, and restrictions on antibiotic use. Moreover, shifts in consumer habits, particularly in high-income countries, could reduce demand for red meat and increase pressure on producers to offer more sustainable food options.
Despite these risks, the trend is clear: the future of meat will be more efficient, technologically advanced, and with chicken as the star of global menus.
Key Questions and Answers
- What types of meat will see the most growth in consumption? Chicken is projected to grow by over 20% and become the most consumed meat globally.
- Why will beef and pork consumption either stagnate or decline? Consumers in Europe and North America are seeking more sustainable and healthier meat options.
- How will global meat production become more efficient? Technological advancements, genetic improvements, and better feed management will enable animals to reach greater weights at slaughter.
- What will happen to greenhouse gas emissions from the meat sector? Despite total production growing, emissions will only increase by 6% due to efficiency improvements.
- How will China’s role in global meat trade change? China will reduce its reliance on imports, causing a decrease in its share of global meat trade.
- What will happen to meat prices in the short and long term? Prices will remain high in the short term but gradually decrease by mid-next decade due to lower feed costs and increased productivity.
- What new risks does the meat sector face? The industry will confront challenges such as disease outbreaks, new environmental regulations, and restrictions on antibiotic use.
