Minimum Wage Increase and Projected Salary Growth
In 2026, the general minimum wage increased by 13%, reaching a monthly amount of 9,582.47 pesos. However, the rest of the remunerations are expected to behave differently; companies predict lower salary increases compared to 2025.
According to AON’s latest Non-Union and Union Non-Solicitation Compensation Survey, the salary increase for non-unionized workers will be 5.4% in 2026, a decrease from the adjustments of 6.5-6.9% seen in 2025.
Regional Variations in Salary Adjustments
AON estimates that the northern, northwestern, Bajío, and State of Mexico regions will have the widest gaps between 2026 salary adjustments and the percentages given in 2025.
For unionized employees, the expectation is similar; salaries are projected to grow on average by 6.4% in 2026, but this was between 6.8-7.2% for 2025.
Cautious Salary Outlook
The Michael Page 2026 Salary Guide also warns of increased caution, with only 62% of companies certain to provide salary increases this year, compared to 78% in 2025.
Of the companies considering adjustments, 65% predict raises between 1-5%, close to inflation growth.
Minimum Wage vs Market Salaries
Over the past 8 years, the minimum wage has seen significant growth. From 2018 to 2026, the general reference salary rose from 88.36 to 315.04 pesos per daily shift, an accumulated increase of 148%. However, market salaries have not kept pace with this rapid growth, narrowing the gap between the minimum and other remunerations.
AON estimates that, if the current trend continues, by 2028 the general minimum wage will surpass market salaries. This is due to professional remuneration adjustments of 5.8-6.4%, while the minimum wage grows at a rate of 12-13% to meet the presidential goal of equating it to 2.5 basic baskets by 2030.
Javier Brassel, WTW Mexico’s Compensation Surveys Director, states that the labor market is experiencing salary compression; not all compensation levels progress at the same rate, and higher-earning positions see smaller adjustments.
“Our compensation structure is becoming flatter; we’re witnessing a salary compression phenomenon. The minimum wage increase isn’t just impacting minimum wage earners; it’s creating challenges for maintaining adequate compensation progress across organizational levels,” Brassel explained.
According to WTW data, technical and professional staff remunerations have grown by 7.5% and 6.3%, respectively, over the past seven years.
Economic, Social, and Business Impacts
Mercer’s analysis, The 2026 Minimum Wage Increase in Mexico: Economic, Social, and Business Responses, acknowledges that while the minimum wage increase improves immediate household income, potentially reducing financial stress and economic stability, its effects on the labor market “may include reduced new job creation, workforce adjustments, and possible increased turnover,” the report warns.
This scenario could result from salary understanding driving individuals to seek higher-paying jobs (labor turnover) and businesses responding to increased labor costs by replacing low-productivity positions (workforce adjustments).
