Background on Key Figures and Context
The Banco de México (Banxico) has projected a significant decrease in job creation for 2025, estimating between 40,000 and 200,000 job openings. This represents a 13% decline compared to the previous year, 2024. This forecast comes despite the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) reporting an unprecedented job creation in July, incorporating digital platform workers into the social security system.
Who is Andrés Manuel López Obrador?
Andrés Manuel López Obrador is the current President of Mexico, serving since December 2018. His first year in office saw the creation of 342,000 jobs, a figure exceeding expectations for 2025 given the global economic situation and imposition of tariffs.
Job Creation Trends
In 2021, Mexico experienced its best year for job creation with 846,000 new positions, following a loss of 647,000 jobs in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, Banxico’s recent report suggests a downward trend for 2025.
Banxico’s Job Creation Projections
According to Banxico’s quarterly report, excluding the 1.3 million newly incorporated jobs associated with digital platforms, the IMSS job creation projection ranges from 40,000 to 200,000 positions. This reflects the expected economic activity and the weakness in job creation.
Inclusion of Digital Platform Workers
In July 2022, a pilot program was launched to include digital platform workers in the mandatory social security regime. This resulted in 1.3 million jobs being registered with IMSS that month. However, Banxico states that if this “extraordinary” increase is considered, the annual variation expectation for IMSS-registered jobs in 2025 would be between 1.3 and 1.5 million positions.
Job Creation Projections for 2025 and Beyond
Banxico projects that formal job creation for 2025 will range from 260,000 to 460,000 positions. The August employment report from IMSS has yet to be published.
Banamex’s Report on Job Creation
Banamex’s special report highlights that formal job creation decreased in July after excluding digital platform workers. Excluding the extraordinary addition, formal job creation continues to deteriorate. Official figures show that 1.29 million workers joined this category in July, causing formal employment to fall by 0.1% annually—a stark contrast to the stagnation observed in June.
Entities with Declining Employment
Banamex’s report also notes that 19 entities reported declines in the employment indicator in July, up from 17 in the previous month and 12 at the start of the year.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the projected job creation for 2025 according to Banxico? Between 40,000 and 200,000 formal job openings, representing a 13% decrease from 2024.
- Who is Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and how does he relate to job creation? He is Mexico’s current President. In his first year, 342,000 jobs were created, a figure exceeding expectations for 2025.
- What happened in July 2022 regarding job creation? A pilot program was launched to include digital platform workers in the mandatory social security regime, adding 1.3 million jobs that month.
- How many formal jobs are projected for 2025 by Banxico? Between 260,000 and 460,000 formal job openings.
- What does Banamex’s report reveal about job creation trends? Formal job creation has been deteriorating, with 1.29 million workers added in July 2022 alone causing a 0.1% annual decrease in formal employment.
- How many entities reported declines in the employment indicator in July 2022? Nineteen entities reported such declines, up from 17 in the previous month and 12 at the start of the year.
