Key Insights into Mexico’s Employment Outlook for Q4 2025
As the year draws to a close, Mexico’s job market faces a challenging period with a cautious approach from employers. According to the Q4 2025 Employment Expectation Survey, a net hiring trend of 27% is anticipated, marking a two-percentage-point decrease from the same period last year.
Employer Sentiment and Hiring Plans
Fernando Bermudez Pire, Director of Institutional Relations for ManpowerGroup Latin America, shared the survey results. The data indicates that 44% of employers plan to hire in the remaining quarter, which Bermudez Pire considers positive despite the uncertain environment.
Historical Context and Comparison
In 2024, the annual employment growth was 213,993 positions, as reported by the IMSS. However, for 2025, the forecast is lower by 64,000 jobs, even with the inclusion of workers from pilot programs transitioning to formal employment under the IMSS.
Transition from Informal to Formal Employment
Bermudez Pire emphasized the importance of transitioning informal workers to formal employment, stating that the positive impact will depend on how the pilot program is fully implemented and formalized.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the net hiring trend for Q4 2025 in Mexico? The net hiring trend is 27%, a decrease of two percentage points compared to the same period in 2024.
- What percentage of employers plan to hire in the remaining quarter of 2025? 44% of employers have hiring plans for the final quarter.
- What was the annual employment growth in 2024, according to the IMSS? The annual employment growth in 2024 was 213,993 positions.
- What is the employment forecast for 2025, compared to 2024? The employment forecast for 2025 is lower by 64,000 jobs compared to 2024.
- Why is transitioning informal workers to formal employment significant? Transitioning informal workers to formal employment is crucial for a more stable and sustainable job market, and its success depends on the full implementation and formalization of pilot programs.
