Introduction
In a period marked by fiscal, social, and political challenges, one goal seems to be progressing smoothly: the increase of the minimum wage. The federal government, under President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration, appears well-positioned to meet its target for the minimum wage in 2026.
Background and Recent Developments
Following the release of Mexico’s multidimensional poverty report by INEGI, which highlighted the significant reduction in poverty rates due to the minimum wage policy, the National Commission of Minimum Wages (CONASAMI) acknowledged that half of this poverty reduction can be directly attributed to the minimum wage increases.
- The daily minimum wage has risen from 88.40 to 248.90 pesos over six years, representing a real accumulated growth of 116.4%.
- The policy has helped 13.4 million people exit poverty, with 6.64 million directly benefiting from the wage increases.
Luis Felipe Munguía Corella, the head of CONASAMI, has stated that while the salary policy will continue to have positive effects, these impacts will become increasingly modest. He emphasizes that although the salary policy has been successful, it has its limitations and cannot be increased indefinitely.
The Minimum Wage Landscape for 2026
President Sheinbaum aims for an average 12% increase in the minimum wage annually, keeping inflation within the Banco de México’s target range. Additionally, she committed to ensuring that the general minimum wage is at least two basic food baskets by 2026.
- Inflation has started to decline, with the consumer price index at 3.51% in July—the lowest since late 2020.
- Analysts consulted by Banco de México predict a 4.05% inflation rate in 2025, which is at the upper limit of the official target range.
The INEGI has also released income-based poverty lines, a task previously handled by the now-defunct Coneval. With this update, the expanded urban basic basket is valued at 4,718.55 pesos.
Given these circumstances, meeting the minimum wage target for 2026 seems achievable. Based on recent data, a salary equivalent to two expanded basic baskets would amount to approximately 9,437.10 pesos per month, representing an 11.3% nominal increase from the 2025 wage.
This would raise the general daily minimum wage from 278.80 to 314.60 pesos in the coming year.
Long-term Goals and Challenges
The long-term goal is for the minimum wage in 2030 to equal 2.5 basic food baskets, equivalent to 393.20 pesos daily or 11,796.40 pesos monthly based on current values.
While technically feasible and politically viable, the real challenge lies in understanding the unseen implications of these adjustments on labor costs, inflation, and employment dynamics—especially for small businesses.
The target is set, but the real test will be maintaining equilibrium along the way.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the target minimum wage for 2026? The target is for the minimum wage to be equivalent to two expanded basic food baskets, approximately 9,437.10 pesos per month.
- What is the long-term goal for the minimum wage? The aim is for the minimum wage in 2030 to equal 2.5 basic food baskets, which would amount to around 11,796.40 pesos daily based on current values.
- What challenges might arise from these minimum wage increases? The primary concern is the potential impact on labor costs, inflation, and employment dynamics, particularly for small businesses.
