Background on the Unemployment Rate in Mexico
Mexico’s unemployment rate has been on the rise for three consecutive months, reaching its highest level in 13 months. In September, the unemployment rate ticked up slightly from 2.93% to 2.97%, nearing its historical highs. This increase was due to the addition of 52,355 people to the unemployed population, according to Mexico’s National Employment and Occupation Survey (ENOE).
Experts’ Perspectives
Gabriela Siller, Director of Economic and Financial Analysis at Banco Base, noted a deteriorating labor market trend. “The unemployment rate’s upward trajectory is likely to persist,” she stated, pointing out that the trend had been reversing since May of this year after a period of decline starting from August 2024.
Janneth Quiroz, Director of Economic Analysis, Cambiario, and Securities at Monex, described the labor market’s evolution as “mixed.” While the unemployment rate continues to rise and reached its highest level in 13 months, labor participation and the number of employed individuals showed a slight uptick, indicating varied performance across sectors.
Urban vs Rural Unemployment
The urban unemployment rate, which captures more formal labor markets, increased from 3.55% to 3.70%, marking its highest level since July 2023.
Decline in Población No Económicamente Activa (PNEA)
Alongside the rise in employment and unemployment, there was a decrease in Población No Económicamente Activa (PNEA), particularly among those categorized as “available to work.” Gabriela Siller suggested this could indicate more household members seeking employment due to factors like reduced government aid and social transfers.
Forecast for the Rest of the Year
With September’s results, the labor market anticipates a challenging year-end, primarily due to weakness in key employment sectors like manufacturing, which lost over half a million jobs.
Gabriela Siller expects the unemployment rate’s upward trend to continue, reflecting fewer formal job creations and a stagnant labor market.
ManpowerGroup Mexico’s Expectations Survey
According to ManpowerGroup Mexico’s Expectations Survey, 39% of companies plan no changes to their workforce, while 16% anticipate personnel reductions in the final quarter of 2025. Throughout 2025, the survey has shown cautious hiring by companies, with 34% of firms expecting no workforce changes in Q1 2025, and 48% anticipating growth.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the current unemployment rate in Mexico? The unemployment rate has risen to 2.97% in September, nearing its historical high of 3.03% in August 2024.
- Why is the unemployment rate increasing? Experts, like Gabriela Siller, point to a deteriorating labor market trend, with fewer formal job creations and stagnation in the job market.
- What do companies expect for their workforce in the coming months? ManpowerGroup Mexico’s Expectations Survey indicates that 39% of companies plan no changes, while 16% anticipate reductions in their workforce for Q4 2025.
- What factors contribute to the rise in household members seeking employment? Factors such as reduced government aid and social transfers may push more family members to seek work.
