Background on the Situation
New Yorkers are known for their coffee culture, with millions of cups sold daily in both high-end boutique cafes and street carts across the city. However, coffee enthusiasts are now grappling with rising prices for their favorite beverage, from simple espressos to pumpkin-spiced lattes, due to a 21% increase in arabica coffee bean costs between August 2024 and August 2025 in the United States, the world’s largest coffee market.
Climate crises have contributed to a dramatic surge in arabica coffee prices, reaching an all-time high in February 2025. This situation has been exacerbated by elevated transportation costs and tariffs of 50% imposed by former President Donald Trump on products from Brazil, starting August 6. Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, was sanctioned by the Trump administration for allegedly supporting a failed coup attempt by former President Jair Bolsonaro, which led to the suspension of coffee bean imports.
Impact on Coffee Businesses
Jeremy Lyman, co-founder of New York-based coffee chain Birch Coffee (established in 2009 with 14 physical stores and roasting their own coffee in Queens since 2015), acknowledged the market forces driving up prices for their customers.
“It’s having a significant impact on us, small business owners, farmers, and everyone involved,” Lyman told AFP. “The wholesale coffee market price has been consistently rising over the past year, increasing by approximately 55% compared to the previous year. This is affecting what we charge.”
Lyman explained that Brazil’s production has become “unfeasible,” forcing them to seek coffee beans from other regions, as their importer has suspended orders unless explicitly requested.
Cecafe, the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council, reported that shipments to the U.S. fell nearly 53% in September compared to the previous year, with importers turning to Mexico, Peru, and Ethiopia for coffee beans.
United Against Rising Coffee Prices
Birch Coffee has responded by adding 50 cents to in-store cup prices and $2-$3 to online bagged coffee sales. Lyman noted that these are small increments, providing time to decide on new sourcing strategies.
Some cafes have adopted an innovative approach by adding an adjustable premium to base cup prices based on that day’s tariffs set by Trump. However, Lyman cautioned that customers might only tolerate price increases up to a certain point, with the real risk being loss of clientele.
Customer Reactions
Jason Nickel, 45, stated that he remains cautious about where he buys coffee despite his daily caffeine fix. He mentioned that he wouldn’t pay more than $6, including a tip, for a cortado.
Anna Simonovsky, 32, reported that her maximum spending on a latte has increased from $7 to $10. She enjoys coffee during special occasions, like visiting friends.
Government Intervention
In response to the rising coffee prices, Trump recently placed coffee on a list of products not grown in sufficient quantities by U.S. farmers, potentially exempting it from tariffs along with tea and cocoa.
In a rare display of bipartisanship, Republicans and Democrats are jointly sponsoring a bill aimed at protecting coffee products.
