The Conclave Begins: Who are the Favorite 20 Candidates to Become the New Pope?
As with major events like the World Cup, betting houses offer odds for wagering on the new Pope of the Catholic Church. Cardinals gather in secrecy starting from this Wednesday to elect the successor of Francis, and while it’s not a competition for the Chair of St. Peter, global anticipation has drawn millions of spectators who, like in a World Cup, have their favorites. Betting is so prevalent that some dare to wager on who will be the new Pope announced from St. Peter’s Basilica balcony.
Understanding the Betting Odds
Betting odds can be presented in different formats, such as decimal or fractional, depending on the region or betting outlet. Decimal odds represent the total amount you’ll receive if your bet wins, while fractional odds show potential profit relative to the stake.
Betting on Cardinals
Among the frontrunners, Pietro Parolin and Luis Antonio Tagle lead the bets. Bet365 pays 9/4 (2.25), while Sky Bet, William Hill, Betfair, Betvictor, Ladbrokes, and Betfred pay 5/2 (2.5). A $1 million bet on either Parolin or Tagle would yield $2.5 million if they win.
- Peter Turkson: Rose from fifth place to third. Bet365, Betfair, Betvictor, Ladbrokes, and Betfred offer a 3 decimal odd. Matteo Zuppi is fourth with odds between 4.5 and 7.
- Pierbattista Pizzaballa and Peter Erdo: Rank fifth and sixth, respectively, with a 12 decimal odd.
- Robert Sarah, Mario Grech, Jean-Marc Aveline, and Wilton Gregory: Complete the top 10 with their respective odds.
Bettors can also wager on the Pope’s continent of origin (Europe, Asia, Africa, or others) or even on the potential papal name. Wilmar Roldán Solano, a theology professor at Javeriana University, explains that favorite names are part of a media-driven competition due to the proximity of these cardinals to Pope Francis or their alignment with the previous pontiff’s agenda. However, he emphasizes that the conclave considers many unconventional factors.
The Winner’s Odds
According to Matteo Gerbino, managing director of Betsson for Colombia, “The Italian Parolin is favored to become the next Pope with 3.20 odds, followed by Filipino Luis Tagle at 4.25.” A $1 million bet on Parolin would yield $3.2 million, while Tagle offers $4.25 million and Matteo Zuppi provides $5.5 million.
The betting market is diverse, allowing wagers on the new Pope’s continent of origin, with odds ranging from 1.55 (Europe) to 51 (Oceania). These odds reflect the number of eligible cardinals and their likelihood of becoming Pope.
An Unpredictable Bet
Despite hearing certain names as favorites, the secretive nature of the conclave makes the final selection unpredictable. Roldán clarifies that a cardinal not part of this media competition could still be elected, as Jorge Mario Bergoglio (Pope Francis) wasn’t a favorite before his selection in the previous conclave.
The outcome will emerge from today’s conclave, where the 267th Pope in Catholic Church history will be chosen—an event impacting virtually the entire world.
For those interested in exploring alternative betting markets, one can wager on the new Pope’s papal name. A succession bet on Francisco II (following Bergoglio) offers 2.5 odds, while other possibilities like Benedicto, Leo, Pío, or Nicolás vary in odds, with Honorius, Innocent, and Sixtus offering 51 times the stake.
