Introduction
Following the death of Pope Francis at 88, speculation has arisen regarding his successor. In response to this uncertainty, bookmakers have capitalized on the situation by offering odds on who might become the next Pope, generating business amidst global uncertainty.
Potential Candidates
Pietro Parolin
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, a 70-year-old Italian, has been Pope Francis’ second-in-command since 2013 as the Secretary of State. His role involves overseeing internal church affairs and guiding its foreign policy.
Given his prominence and close relationship with Pope Francis, Parolin is considered one of the frontrunners. Consequently, his odds are relatively low among bookmakers, with a four-to-one bet.
Luis Antonio Tagle
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, a 67-year-old Filipino with liberal leanings, has long been regarded as a frontrunner for Pope. Known as the “Asian Francis,” Tagle was appointed cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI in 2012 and would be the first Asian Pope.
Due to these speculations, Tagle’s odds are low in betting houses, ranging from 4.50 to three-to-one, reflecting his high chances of becoming the next Pope in 2025.
Peter Turkson
At 76, Cardinal Peter Turkson is one of the most influential African cardinals and a strong contender to become the first black Pope in the Catholic Church. He currently serves as the Chancellor of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences and the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences.
Despite his influence within the Catholic Church, Turkson is not currently considered a leading candidate. His odds stand at up to six-to-one, making him one of the less favored options for this papal term.
Peter Erdő
Cardinal Peter Erdő, a 72-year-old Hungarian canon law expert, could be an unexpected choice for the next Pope. Appointed by John Paul II as Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest in 2002 and elevated to cardinal the following year, he became one of the youngest cardinals at 50.
Despite his successful career in the Catholic Church, Erdő is not among the top favorites at present. His odds are at seven-to-one, placing him among the least favored for this papal term.
Legality of Betting
Foreign betting houses now offer odds on who might be the next Pope, how long they will serve, and even what name the new Pope might adopt. This practice has been ongoing for some time; before Pope Francis’s arrival in 2013, similar bets were placed. Despite not being the favorite, he became the first Latin American leader of the Roman Catholic Church.
While this may seem absurd, betting on future Popes is legal in several countries, primarily in Europe. In the United States, sports betting is widely regulated, making it illegal to wager on the future Pope. However, informal bets among groups or private circles are not prohibited.
In the United Kingdom and Ireland, such bets are legal. Bookmakers like Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, and William Hill have opened markets for individuals to bet on the name the next elected Pope will choose.
The Selection Process
Although the future leader of the Vatican and Catholic Church remains uncertain, an election for the new Pope is expected soon. When a Pope dies or resigns, the conclave protocol is activated—a centuries-old tradition marked by secrecy and isolation. Cardinals are sealed in the Casa Santa Marta within the Vatican, cut off from external contact, where they conduct daily votes in the Sistine Chapel until one candidate secures at least two-thirds of the votes. Only cardinals under 80 are eligible to vote.
