What is Trump Doing?
Upon returning to power on January 20, Donald Trump declared a “state of emergency” along the 3,100 km border with Mexico and initiated the deployment of approximately 9,600 soldiers.
In March, he ordered the dispatch of two warships—one to the Gulf of Mexico and another to the west coast for border security tasks.
Trump also announced the creation of a “national defense zone” spanning 443 square kilometers in New Mexico, USA. This would allow the military to expel migrants from that area, a task typically reserved for civilian authorities. In response, Mexico sent a diplomatic note requesting respect for its territory.
Additionally, there have been increased drone overflights in Mexican airspace, as per Claudia Sheinbaum, at the request of Mexico, as part of long-standing collaborations.
Trump designated six Mexican drug cartels as terrorists, claiming they exert significant control over the neighboring country.
“I think they need help,” Trump stated last week, after asserting that Sheinbaum—with whom he maintains open dialogue—rejected an offer of military support.
“Maybe something has to happen. Things can’t go on like this,” he added to conservative media outlet The Blaze.
“The threat of aerial or drone attacks is very realistic,” and “serves as a coercive technique” to encourage Mexican anti-drug efforts, according to Vanda Felbab-Brown, a security expert at the Brookings Institute in Washington.
“Unmanned aerial vehicles would gather substantial information to help create a target inventory,” opines Íñigo Guevara, director of Janes intelligence firm in Washington and a professor at Georgetown University’s master’s program in security studies.
How is Mexico Responding?
“Cooperation, yes; subordination, no,” Sheinbaum repeatedly emphasizes, warning that Mexico will not allow “the sovereignty to be compromised.”
Trump’s threats are not insignificant in a country that lost half its territory to the United States in the 19th century.
Faced with U.S. tariff pressures, which account for 80% of Mexico’s exports, Sheinbaum ordered the deployment of 10,000 soldiers along the border, handed over 29 capos to U.S. authorities, and reinforced anti-drug operations following the criticized “hugs, not bullets” policy of her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
Two outcomes are evident: the seizure of 144 tons of drugs, including two million fentanyl pills, since October last year. Additionally, the number of migrants apprehended at the U.S. side of the border has decreased, from 180,359 in March 2024 to 11,017 in March of the current year, according to official figures.
However, to counterbalance the decree expanding U.S. powers against “narco-terrorism,” Sheinbaum had a reform passed in Congress that criminalizes covert actions by foreign agents.
“Trump’s warnings are a ‘show of force,’ not immediate or direct threats,” towards Mexico, according to Raúl Benítez, a professor at the Center for North American Studies at Mexico’s National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM).
Is an Attack Feasible?
Although Trump does not rule out unilateral U.S. attacks, Vanda Felbab-Brown believes they would be “politically explosive,” as they would sever cooperation.
“High-value targets could be eliminated, but that’s not different from what Mexican armed forces could accomplish,” the expert points out.
“It would be a step backward of over a hundred years,” Íñigo Guevara notes, referring to the 1916 U.S. invasion of Chihuahua to capture revolutionary Pancho Villa, who had carried out an attack in Columbus, New Mexico (USA).
Despite the reservations caused by Trump’s expressions, analysts highlight the close military ties between the two nations, including Mexican officers’ training in U.S. schools.
“Trump’s rhetoric typically starts at an exaggerated point to create alarm and force his counterpart into swift action… It’s a tool for intimidation,” Guevara analyzes.
In practice, however, “there is likely a bilateral intelligence fusion taking place that would grant Mexico unparalleled capabilities against organized crime,” the scholar emphasizes.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is Trump doing regarding Mexican drug cartels? Trump has declared a state of emergency along the U.S.-Mexico border, deployed 9,600 soldiers, dispatched warships, and designated six Mexican cartels as terrorists. He has also increased drone overflights in Mexican airspace and threatened aerial attacks.
- How is Mexico responding to Trump’s actions? Mexico has deployed 10,000 soldiers along the border, handed over capos to U.S. authorities, reinforced anti-drug operations, and passed a reform criminalizing covert foreign actions. Sheinbaum insists on cooperation without subordination and warns against compromising sovereignty.
- Is an attack by the U.S. on Mexican cartels feasible? While not ruled out, experts believe unilateral U.S. attacks would be politically explosive and not significantly different from Mexican forces’ capabilities. Historically, such actions would represent a step backward of over a hundred years.
