Overview of the 2025 Hurricane Season
The Mexican Navy (Semar) has announced the start dates and expected number of tropical cyclone events for the 2025 season. The Pacific season begins on May 15, while the Atlantic (Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) season starts on June 1. Both seasons are expected to conclude on November 30.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, a total of 36 tropical cyclone events are anticipated in 2025, ranging from a tropical depression to Category 5 hurricanes—the most intense on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Pacific and Atlantic Forecast
Pacific:
- 1 Depression Tropical
- 8 Tropical Storms
- 6 Strong Hurricanes
- 4 Intense Hurricanes
Atlantic (Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico):
- 2 Tropical Depressions
- 7 Tropical Storms
- 4 Strong Hurricanes
- 4 Intense Hurricanes
Naming the 2025 Cyclones
Since 1953, tropical cyclones have been named from torna tropical to hurricane level, following a system established by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). This process is now supervised by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Names for tropical cyclones are assigned from predefined lists that are updated every six years. These lists cycle through, and if a tropical cyclone is particularly destructive, its name can be retired for various reasons and replaced with another.
This decision is made annually during the committee’s meeting, where other matters related to cyclones are also reviewed.
Should the number of tropical cyclones exceed both lists in 2025, auxiliary or complementary lists will be used.
Climate Seasonal Forecast 2025
According to the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), in May at the beginning of the 2025 tropical cyclone season, there is an increased probability of rainfall along the coasts of Central and Southern Mexico’s Pacific, as well as the Gulf of Mexico shoreline.
Based on this meteorological information, the Northwest region of Mexico is expected to experience below-average rainfall.
In June 2025, above- and near-average rainfall is expected in most of the national territory, while the Northeast and Southeast regions will face a significant rainfall deficit.
By July 2025, a decrease in rainfall is anticipated in the Yucatan Peninsula, while the rest of the country will see average precipitation levels.
La Niña and MJO
For the tropical cyclone season, La Niña to Neutral conditions are expected, which will favor an active season on both coasts with more frequent and closer tropical cyclones.
The 30 to 60-day phase of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) should be considered in the activity of tropical cyclones.
Resilience or Warning?
In May, above-normal rainfall is expected in the eastern, central, and southern regions, while below-normal rainfall is anticipated in the northwestern region of the national territory.
In June, near-normal to above-normal rainfall is expected across most of the national territory, with a deficit in the Northeast and Southeast. In July, reduced rainfall is forecasted in the Yucatan Peninsula, while the rest of the country will see average precipitation levels.
For August through October, normal precipitation levels within the average range are expected.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the start date for the 2025 Pacific hurricane season? The Pacific hurricane season begins on May 15.
- How many tropical cyclone events are expected in 2025? A total of 36 tropical cyclone events are anticipated in 2025.
- What naming system is used for tropical cyclones? Tropical cyclone names are assigned from predefined lists updated every six years, supervised by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
- What conditions are expected for the 2025 hurricane season? La Niña to Neutral conditions are expected, favoring an active season with more frequent and closer tropical cyclones on both coasts.
- What are the regional rainfall expectations for 2025?
- May: Above-normal rainfall in eastern, central, and southern regions; below-normal in the northwest.
- June: Near-normal to above-normal rainfall across most of the national territory; deficit in Northeast and Southeast.
- July: Reduced rainfall in the Yucatan Peninsula; average levels elsewhere.
- August-October: Normal precipitation levels within the average range.
