Introduction
An international team of scientists has concluded that global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels will reach a record high in 2025, according to the annual Global Carbon Budget report published on Thursday. The study also warns that keeping global warming below 1.5°C may be “impossible.”
Key Findings
- Record Emissions: The report states that global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels will increase by 1.1% in 2025 compared to the previous year, with renewable energy sources failing to meet the growing energy demand.
- Emission Sources: The study examines CO2 emissions caused by human activities, including burning hydrocarbons, cement production, and land use changes like deforestation.
- COP30 Implications: The findings cast a shadow over COP30, the United Nations climate conference in Brazil, as major polluters like the United States are absent. Despite evidence that 2025 will be one of the hottest years on record, countries’ climate plans fall short.
- Emission Trends: Emissions from coal in China remained stagnant, suggesting a growing role for renewables. However, uncertainty around the policies of major pollutors makes it too early to confirm a peak in their emissions.
- Regional Variations: In the US, coal emissions increased due to cheaper gas prices driving consumers back to this more polluting energy source. Meanwhile, India’s early monsoon and renewable energy growth helped limit CO2 emission increases.
- Deforestation Impact: Reduced deforestation and fires in South America, partly due to the end of the dry conditions caused by El Niño 2023-2024, contributed to lower emissions from land use changes.
Limiting Global Warming
To limit global warming to 1.5°C, the report states that no more than 170,000 million tonnes of additional CO2 can be added to the atmosphere. However, current emission rates imply that this limit will be exceeded in just four more years at the current pace.
“This equates to four more years of emissions at the current rate before the budget for 1.5°C is exhausted, so it’s essentially impossible,” said Pierre Friedlingstein, the lead researcher from the University of Exeter.
Regional Emission Trends
According to Glen Peters from CICERO, “Collectively, the world is not doing enough.” He emphasizes that all countries need to contribute more to meet climate goals.
- China: Emissions from fossil fuels in China remained largely unchanged this year, with coal use showing minimal decline.
- United States: Coal emissions neared 7.5% due to cheaper gas prices driving consumers back to this more polluting energy source.
- European Union: Both the US and EU defied recent downward trends with increased emissions, partly due to higher heating demand during colder winter months.
- India: Early monsoon arrival and renewable energy growth helped limit CO2 emission increases compared to previous years.
Progress and Challenges
The study highlights that 35 countries successfully reduced their emissions without undermining economic growth, which is double the number a decade ago. However, overall global emissions are projected to be around 42,200 million tonnes this year, slightly below last year’s figure, with significant uncertainty.
