Overview of the Weather System
A combination of winter systems will place Mexico under an extensive impact scenario in the coming days, with varying rain intensities, snow or sleet in high altitude areas, severe frosts, and strong winds that increase the risk of infrastructure and mobility disruptions.
Cold Front 30 and Winter Storm Details
The National Weather Service anticipates that Cold Front 30 will move from the northeast and slowly traverse across the northwest, east, and southeast regions, including the Yucatan Peninsula, from Saturday to Tuesday.
Impacted Regions
This weather system will be driven by an Arctic air mass favoring a prolonged and intense North event along with elevated waves in the Gulf and southeast coasts. The advisory covers the coastal areas of Tamaulipas and Veracruz, as well as coastal zones in Oaxaca and Chiapas along the Gulf of Tehuantepec, plus Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatan, and northern Quintana Roo.
Concurrent Winter Storm in the Northwest
Simultaneously, the interaction of a polar vortex with an atmospheric river and polar/subtropical jet stream will generate the third winter storm of the season over Mexico’s northwest, featuring rain and snow in northern and highland states.
Temperatures and Precipitation Forecast
For Saturday, January 22nd:
- -10°C to -5°C minimum temperatures in the mountainous regions of Durango.
- -5°C to 0°C with frost in high altitude areas of Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León, San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas, Hidalgo, Estado de México, Tlaxcala, Puebla, Veracruz, and Oaxaca.
- 0°C to 5°C in mountainous areas of Aguascalientes, Guanajuato, Querétaro, and the Valley of Mexico.
Significant rainfall is expected in Baja California Sur, Sonora, Chihuahua, Sinaloa, and Durango (50-75 mm), as well as strong rains in Baja California and Coahuila (25-50 mm), and showers in Nuevo León and Tamaulipas.
Engelment rain and snow or sleet are also forecasted for the mountainous regions of Coahuila and Nuevo León, along with snow or sleet in the sierras of Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, and Durango.
Wind and Additional Risks
Strong winds will further exacerbate the situation:
- Wind gusts of 70-90 km/h are expected in Coahuila, Durango, and Zacatecas on Saturday.
- A North event with wind gusts of 70-90 km/h is forecasted for Tamaulipas.
Extending Severity: Sunday and Beyond
For Sunday, January 23rd:
- Minimum temperatures of -20°C to -15°C are expected in the mountainous regions of Chihuahua, and -15°C to -10°C in the high altitude areas of Durango and Coahuila.
- Snow or sleet is forecasted for the sierras of Coahuila, Sonora, Chihuahua, and Nuevo León, along with the Colima Volcano, accompanied by engelment rain in the regions of Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Coahuila, and San Luis Potosí.
The North event on Sunday is predicted to be intense, with wind gusts of 70-90 km/h in Tamaulipas and Veracruz, as well as waves of 3-4 meters high along their coasts.
Uncertainty and Continuous Monitoring
Authorities warn that the cold temperatures might persist until Monday, January 26th, with uncertainty in the forecast and a call to stay updated on forthcoming days.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is causing these weather conditions? A combination of winter systems, including Cold Front 30 and a concurrent winter storm in the northwest, is causing these conditions.
- Which regions will be most affected? The advisory covers coastal areas of Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatan, and northern Quintana Roo, along with mountainous regions in several central and northern states.
- What types of precipitation are expected? Significant rainfall, snow, and sleet are forecasted across various regions, with the potential for engelment rain in some areas.
- How strong will the winds be? Wind gusts of 70-90 km/h are expected in Coahuila, Durango, and Zacatecas on Saturday, along with a North event featuring similar wind speeds in Tamaulipas.
- How long will these conditions last? Authorities anticipate that cold temperatures may persist until Monday, January 26th, with ongoing monitoring and updates.
