Climate Change Experts Issue Alarm Over Rapid Temperature Increase
The consistent rise in global temperatures over the past 18 months has raised concerns among experts, who warn of a possible acceleration in global warming or an underestimation of the planet’s self-regulating capacity. This was highlighted by Francisco Estrada Porrúa, head of the Climate Change Research Program at Mexico’s National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM).
Global Temperature Thresholds
Since 2023, the global temperature has remained above the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreements, according to Estrada. Despite expectations of a drop following El Niño and La Niña phenomena, temperatures have remained elevated for over a year and a half, suggesting we could surpass the average 1.5°C limit in just five years.
Mexico’s Critical Situation
In Mexico, the situation is even more critical. From the pre-industrial period to 2024, the temperature has increased by 1.8°C, surpassing the global average. The national warming rate is estimated at 3.2°C per century, compared to the global average of 2°C. Moreover, Estrada reminded the audience that projections made in 2006 about coffee production in Veracruz underestimated losses: a 24% reduction was expected by 2020, but today it approaches nearly 48%.
Towards an Inclusive Future
Enrique Provencio Durazo, head of the Program for Development Studies at UNAM, emphasized that climate action should become a central axis in national development strategies over the coming decades during his speech at the conference “Urgent Actions and Policies in the Face of Climate Change Realities.” He stressed that climate action must receive the highest priority within public action, align with international commitments, and be adequately supported politically and financially.
Provencio also pointed out that integrating climate strategies into a broader vision of progress, rather than just environmental justice, would make them more viable. He highlighted the importance of aligning economic policy instruments, especially those related to investments for climate change mitigation, achieving zero deforestation, and complying with the Paris Agreements.
Social Threats from Climate Change
Naxhelli Ruiz Rivera, head of the University Seminar on Socioenvironmental Risks at UNAM’s Institute of Geography, warned that social threats stemming from climate change must be linked to social rights.
Ruiz Rivera suggested that addressing these threats depends on tackling structural opportunities rather than merely counting damaged assets. During her presentation on “Social Risks Associated with Climate-Related Disasters in Mexico,” she revealed that 22.5 million people in Mexico engage in care work, while 38 million receive care, with 80% being girls, boys, and adolescents, 10% being elderly individuals, and another 10% having disabilities.
She also disclosed that 35.3 million private households suffer from severe quality deficiencies, with a quarter having more than 30 years of existence and 44% exhibiting moisture or foundation issues, particularly in coastal states. Furthermore, she pointed out the lack of data on urban environment conditions and associated social risks from climate change, such as the case of Hurricane Otis, which affected 296,000 minors with consequences like sexual exploitation, school dropout, diseases, lack of medical attention, and malnutrition.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the main concern raised by UNAM scientists? The consistent rise in global temperatures over the past 18 months has raised concerns about a possible acceleration in global warming or an underestimation of the planet’s self-regulating capacity.
- How does Mexico’s temperature increase compare to the global average? Mexico’s temperature has increased by 1.8°C since the pre-industrial period, surpassing the global average of 1.5°C.
- What is the urgency behind integrating climate action into national development strategies? Climate action should become a central axis in national development strategies to prioritize it within public action, align with international commitments, and ensure adequate political and financial support.
- What are the social threats linked to climate change in Mexico? Social threats include the vulnerability of 22.5 million people engaged in care work and 38 million receiving care, with significant proportions being children, the elderly, and people with disabilities. Severe housing quality issues also affect 35.3 million private households.
