Introduction
A new study by the University of Oxford, published in the journal Nature Sustainability, issues a stark warning: the number of people exposed to extreme heat worldwide will surge from 23% in 2010 to 41% by 2050.
Key Researcher
Dr. Radhika Khosla, the lead of Oxford’s Future of Cooling program, emphasizes that surpassing 1.5°C will have unprecedented impacts on education, health, migration, and agriculture. She stresses that net-zero emissions development is the only path to reverse this trend.
Global Heat Extremes Projection
Scientists consider this scenario increasingly likely if global temperatures rise 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels. The report highlights that developing nations, primarily located in tropical latitudes near the equator, will experience drastic changes in their “Degree Days of Cooling” (DRC), a metric measuring the need for cooling to maintain safe living conditions.
America Latina: A Region in Crisis
The study identifies six Latin American countries facing significant changes: Brazil, Venezuela, Paraguay, Honduras, Guatemala, and Nicaragua.
Worsening Situation
This projection exacerbates an already critical situation. According to complementary data from the Lancet Countdown Latin America report, heat-related mortality in the region increased by 103% between 1990 and 2021. The consequences are not only health-related but also deeply economic: heat has cost the region an average of $855 million annually in the last decade, with thermal stress causing productivity losses of $52 billion (0.81% of the GDP) in 2024, disproportionately affecting agriculture and construction sectors.
A Vicious Cycle
The rise in extreme heat will drive massive demand for cooling systems. Dr. Jesus Lizana, the study’s lead author, warns that most of these changes will occur even before crossing the 1.5°C threshold.
- Increased Demand: Many households will need to install air conditioning in the next five years, but temperatures will continue rising beyond that.
- Emission Risk: This increased energy demand could escalate greenhouse gas emissions if sustainable cooling solutions aren’t adopted, further accelerating global warming.
Ironically, while the human impact will be most severe in the Global South (Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America), countries with colder climates will see the highest percentage increases in “uncomfortably hot days”: Ireland (+230%), Norway (+200%), the UK, and Sweden (+150%).
Urgent Action Needed
Experts agree that the crisis demands immediate and dual action: drastically limit global warming while simultaneously financing adaptation infrastructure in low-income nations, which are least equipped but most affected by this new climatic reality.
