The Unaccounted Price of Oceanic Services
For years, the ocean has been the “invisible hero” in the climate crisis, absorbing heat and carbon dioxide. However, this service has come at a price that the global economy had not been accounting for until now.
“How can it be that 70% of our planet has been virtually valued at zero in climate economic models?” wondered Bernardo Bastien-Olvera, leader of the study and current researcher at the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Change at UNAM. This simple yet uncomfortable question was the driving force behind a study that could change the foundations of global climate policy: the Social Blue Carbon Cost.
The Leap from $51 to $97
The “social cost of carbon” is a metric used by governments (like the EPA in the US) to measure the monetary damage caused by each ton of CO2 emitted. Until now, this calculation was around $51. However, by adding variables such as coral reef degradation, loss of fisheries, and damage to coastal infrastructure, the study adds an additional $46.2, raising the total figure to $97.2 per ton.
Bastien-Olvera explains to El Economista that the ocean was not ignored due to its lack of importance, but rather because of the difficulty in weaving natural sciences with economic ones. “There was a lack of a group to make this delicate weaving,” he comments. Today, that weaving shows that if we want to reflect reality in climate policy, carbon taxes should be doubled.
A Deeply Unequal Impact
The study also highlights a climate injustice: the damage is not evenly distributed. Small island nations and small economies are hit hardest as they directly depend on the sea for their nutrition and economy. These regions face a much more severe health and livelihood crisis than industrial powers.
Bastien-Olvera explains the connection between polar warming and health in the tropics, as the study models how fish stocks shift towards colder latitudes, benefiting countries like Iceland or Russia but severely impacting insular and tropical nations.
“We see a loss of key nutrients like omega 3, proteins, and iron.” This directly links the health of the seas to public health crises (diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and nervous system disorders). Under the concept of “One Health,” the study proposes that health systems should be redesigned to address a world where the ocean no longer provides the same as before, and where our health and that of the seas are, in reality, one and the same.
The Value of the Unpriced
How much is it worth knowing that there are bioluminescent jellyfish at the bottom of the sea, even if we never see them? The study is pioneering in calculating “non-use” or existence values. “Just because something doesn’t have a market price doesn’t mean it’s worthless or doesn’t cost. Value goes beyond money; it’s about our personal and social well-being,” asserts the researcher.
However, he issues a crucial technical warning: these models work for small and marginal decisions (like emitting an extra ton of carbon). If we reach catastrophic scenarios, like the loss of 90% of mangroves, “the numbers break down.” In a mass extinction scenario, the economic cost becomes literally infinite.
Science from the Global South
After starting the project at Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego, Bastien-Olvera decided to return to Mexico to lead from UNAM. He reflects: “We don’t need millions of dollars or supercomputers in every institute to ask innovative questions… We can step back and see the forest — or the ocean — from a laptop, creating our own research agenda from the Global South.”
Today, the researcher and his team plan to take these results to international forums like the COP, leveraging partnerships with institutions such as the World Resources Institute (WRI) and Scripps Institution. The goal is for civil society and decision-makers to understand that when a company emits carbon, the ocean is paying a bill that already has a name, surname, and a figure we can no longer ignore.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the Social Blue Carbon Cost study? It’s a new study that puts a monetary value on the damage climate change inflicts on oceans, nearly doubling previous estimates of the social cost of carbon.
- Why was the ocean’s value overlooked? Due to the challenge of integrating natural sciences with economic models, making it difficult to quantify the ocean’s importance in climate change discussions.
- What are the main categories of oceanic damage outlined in the study? Market damages (1.66 trillion dollars by 2100), non-market use values (18.2 billion dollars), and existence values (22.4 billion dollars).
- How does this study address climate injustice? It highlights that the impact of climate change is not evenly distributed, with small island nations and small economies bearing a disproportionate burden.
- What are non-use or existence values? These are the values that exist beyond market prices, such as the intrinsic value of biodiversity and ecosystems.
- What is the significance of this study for policymakers? It provides a more accurate understanding of the true costs of carbon emissions, emphasizing the need for higher carbon taxes to reflect the full extent of climate change impacts.
