Introduction
The possible arrival of Banamex to the Mexican stock exchange (Bolsa) is expected to be beneficial for the national market, potentially increasing participation from institutional investors (both foreign and domestic), national banks, and even Afores (private pension funds). However, experts highlight ongoing issues within the Mexican market that could pose challenges to this listing.
Market Challenges
Despite the potential benefits, experts identify persistent problems in the Mexican market, including low trading volume, limited participation, restricted access, high costs, and excessive bureaucracy.
Amin Vera’s Perspective
Amin Vera, Chief Financial Officer of Invala Family Office, emphasizes that the primary concern is not whether the market is at an ideal point but that the process has already begun, and delays could jeopardize valuation.
“There is a risk of depreciation. A delayed public offering (examples like Viva Aerobus, Sigma, and Fibra Next) tends to depreciate the initial offering price and the overall valuation of the company. If the process drags on for too long, it might not happen at all,” Vera warned.
He also cautioned that if Citi fails to resolve the placement issue and does not list Banamex soon, the situation will only worsen. “If Citigroup waits too long to sell the bank through a stock market placement, it risks ending up in a more challenging position,” he explained.
Market Analyst’s View
Eduardo Caballero, a stock market analyst at Signum Research, believes that the potential IPO of Banamex may not significantly impact the Mexican market. He suggests that investors wishing to maintain exposure in the financial sector might include Banamex in their portfolios and slightly reduce positions in other financial groups and banks.
However, Caballero noted that Banamex’s performance metrics at the end of Q2 2025 indicate a low likelihood of substantial reallocation. “We do not anticipate significant market turbulence due to attempts by a group, already listed in the stock exchange, to acquire a controlling stake,” he stated.
Caballero also pointed out that certain sectors, including finance, have notable discrepancies in valuation, while others align more closely with fundamental values.
Mexican Stock Market Context
The Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV) has experienced a “drought” of initial public offerings (IPOs) since 2017, with Grupo México Transportes being the last company to debut in November of that year.
Since then, the market has faced a prolonged drought of new issuers due to factors such as low liquidity, high-interest rates, market volatility, and unattractive valuations for investors and companies.
Bancos’ Significance in the IPC
The five financial institutions listed on the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV) have a combined market capitalization of approximately 966,023 million pesos, accounting for around 10.92% of the total market value of the 35 companies in Mexico’s primary index, the S&P/BMV IPC.
- Banorte: 30.65%
- Regional: 32.58%
- Gentera: 87.49%
- Inbursa: 12.58%
- Banco de Bajío: 8.74%
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the significance of Banamex listing on Bolsa? The potential listing of Banamex could attract more institutional investors, boosting the Mexican market. However, it also presents challenges due to existing market issues.
- What are the main concerns about the Mexican market? The Mexican market faces challenges such as low trading volume, limited participation, restricted access, high costs, and excessive bureaucracy.
- How might the market react to Banamex’s potential IPO? Market analyst Eduardo Caballero suggests that the impact on the Mexican market would be minimal, with investors possibly reallocating their portfolios to include Banamex.
- What factors influence the valuation of financial institutions in Mexico? Valuation discrepancies exist among financial sectors, with some aligning more closely with fundamental values.
