Background on Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV)
The Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV) is the primary stock exchange in Mexico, playing a crucial role in the country’s financial market. It facilitates trading of stocks, bonds, and other securities for various Mexican companies. The S&P/BMV IPC is the main index that tracks the performance of the Mexican stock market.
Actinver’s Outlook for BMV
David Galazar, the director of Actinver Casa de Bolsa, recently shared his perspective on the Mexican stock market during the 2025 Cumbre de Índices y ETF’s en México. According to Galazar, the S&P/BMV IPC is nearing a critical point, hovering around 58,000 points amid market participants’ nervousness.
Galazar predicts that the index will likely reach 60,000 points and then stagnate at this level. He attributes this forecast to the uncertainty surrounding global economic growth and ongoing trade disputes.
Reasons for Pessimism
Galazar highlighted several factors contributing to the pessimistic outlook for the second half of 2025:
- Uncertainty regarding global and Mexican economic growth
- Reorganization of international trade and investor sentiment remaining cautious
He advised investors to be selective when choosing individual stocks, emphasizing that while there are attractive valuations and opportunities in the capital market, careful consideration is essential.
Sector Performance
The technology sector is expected to remain appealing, with the “Siete Magníficas” (a group of leading Mexican companies) continuing to be the most overweighted. However, Galazar cautioned investors to exercise care when considering Apple, Tesla, and Amazon.
Secretaría de Hacienda’s Perspective
María del Carmen Bonilla Rodríguez, the head of the Public Credit and International Affairs Unit at the Secretaría de Hacienda (Ministry of Finance), emphasized the need for greater financial inclusion and education to advance towards a robust investor market, similar to leading economies.
Bonilla Rodríguez pointed out that the Mexican market is evolving, introducing new instruments like the future of the S&P/BMV IPC, which will be announced in the coming months, according to Aron Brener, subdirector of Derivatives Operations at MexDer (BMV).
ETF Performance
Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are expected to deliver attractive returns of up to 20%, contingent on their sector allocations.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV)? The BMV is the primary stock exchange in Mexico, facilitating trading of various securities for Mexican companies.
- What is the S&P/BMV IPC? The S&P/BMV IPC is the main index that tracks the performance of the Mexican stock market.
- What is Actinver’s outlook for the BMV? Actinver predicts that the S&P/BMV IPC will likely reach 60,000 points and then stagnate due to global economic growth uncertainty and ongoing trade disputes.
- Which sectors are expected to perform well? The technology sector is anticipated to remain attractive, with the “Siete Magníficas” continuing to be the most overweighted.
- What does the Secretaría de Hacienda emphasize for market advancement? The Secretaría de Hacienda stresses the importance of financial inclusion and education to develop a robust investor market.
- What are the projected returns for ETFs? ETFs are expected to deliver attractive returns of up to 20%, depending on their sector allocations.
