Lunch 2nd to 6th February: Key Economic Indicators
February kicks off with a wide array of economic reports in the country, including remittances, private consumption, formal employment, fixed investment, auto sales, and consumer confidence. A crucial report will be the Banco de México’s (Banxico) monetary policy announcement.
Local Economic Indicators:
- Remittances to the exterior (December)
- Private sector expectations survey (January)
- Monthly Business Opinion Survey (January)
- Results of the government securities auction
- JOLTS job offerings survey in the US (December)
On Monday, Mexican markets will be closed for the Constitution Day holiday. With no local activity in the Mexican peso or BMV, market participants will focus on economic figures to adjust positions.
The US Manufacturing PMI index will provide an early signal about the industrial sector’s performance at the start of the year. This indicator assesses production, orders, and employment in manufacturing.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI complements the industrial sector reading, focusing on prices paid, inventory, and production outlook. Its results usually influence growth, inflation, and interest rate expectations.
Tuesday 3rd February: Remittances
On Tuesday, Banxico will be in the spotlight with the remittances to the exterior data. These figures will reveal the flow of resources sent by Mexican workers abroad to their families in Mexico by the end of 2025, crucial for the consumption of millions of households.
Banxico will also release the results of its first expectations survey for private sector analysts this year. The central bank collects analysts’ estimates on economic growth, inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates.
INEGI will publish the results of the Monthly Business Opinion Survey (EMOE), which includes several confidence indicators, manufacturing orders, and business expectations. These help evaluate the productive sector’s perception of the current economic situation.
As usual every Tuesday, Banxico will announce the results of the weekly government securities auction. This report allows knowing details about demand and rates set in Cetes, Bonos, and Udibonos placements.
In the US, the JOLTS job openings survey will highlight the number of vacancies in the largest economy. It’s a key indicator of labor demand, and its evolution helps gauge the strength of the labor market.
Wednesday 4th February: Employment in the US
Midweek continues with US employment figures, starting with the ADP payroll processor’s report.
- ADP non-farm employment change (January)
- US services PMI (January)
- Non-manufacturing ISM PMI in the US (January)
- OECD crude oil inventories
- Annual inflation in the eurozone, preliminary (January)
The ADP’s data offers a preliminary estimate on private sector job creation, crucial for expectations before the official report.
The US services PMI will allow evaluating the performance of the sector with the most weight in the US economy. Its results provide insights into activity, employment, and internal demand, anticipating GDP evolution.
The ISM services index complements the tertiary sector reading, detailing new orders, employment, and prices. It’s a reference for evaluating price pressures and the solidity of the US economy at the start of the year.
The OECD’s weekly crude oil inventory report will show changes in US crude oil reserves. These shifts influence international oil prices by signaling the balance between supply and demand.
Thursday 5th February: Banxico Announcement
Key points of this week include Banxico’s first monetary policy decision.
- Banxico’s monetary policy decision
- Number of workers affiliated with IMSS (January)
- Monthly Fixed Capital Formation Index (November)
- Monthly Private Consumption Index (November)
- Light vehicle industry registration (January)
- New US unemployment insurance claims
- BCE interest rate decision announcement
One focus of this week is Banxico’s first monetary policy decision. Expectations are that the central bank will keep rates unchanged, with attention on the statement and risk update.
Another important data point is the number of workers affiliated with IMSS. These figures help evaluate the formal employment behavior, crucial for assessing labor market strength and job creation.
The Monthly Fixed Capital Formation Index will show the evolution of investment in machinery, equipment, and construction. Its performance is vital for evaluating Mexico’s productive capacity and private sector confidence.
The Monthly Private Consumption Index will reveal the evolution of household spending, one of the main drivers of the Mexican economy. The outcome will help understand the strength of domestic demand by the end of 2025.
Light vehicle sales and production figures will provide insights into the dynamism of the automotive sector. This indicator is important due to its weight in Mexico’s manufacturing activity and exports to key partners.
The weekly US unemployment insurance claims data will offer a glimpse into the labor market’s health. Changes in this figure can anticipate adjustments in hiring and economic growth dynamics.
On Thursday, it’s the European Central Bank’s (ECB) turn to announce its first interest rate decision of the year. Investors will pay close attention to any changes in the communication tone.
Friday 6th February: Consumer Confidence
INEGI will conclude the week with the National Consumer Confidence Survey (ENCO), which includes information on households’ perceptions of their economic situation and the country’s. This survey functions as an advanced indicator of consumption behavior in Mexico.
The official US employment report will close the week, featuring non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings. These results help assess the health of the labor market.
