Overview
This week’s economic calendar in Mexico is relatively light on data releases, with markets focusing on the Banco de México’s monetary policy announcement on Thursday. Additionally, local reports will provide updates on international travelers, industrial activity, private consumption, and retail sales.
Monday, May 12: Industrial Activity
- Monthly Indicator of Industrial Activity (March)
- International Traveler Survey (March)
The week begins with the release of Mexico’s Monthly Indicator of Industrial Activity (IMAI), which measures the performance of key sectors such as mining, manufacturing, construction, and energy generation. Published by INEGI, it helps assess trends, industrial cycles, and predict GDP growth, making it crucial for analysts, businesses, and investors.
Furthermore, INEGI will publish the International Traveler Survey, providing key information on the number of international visitors entering and leaving Mexico, as well as their spending. This data helps understand tourism flow, foreign exchange earnings from tourism, and the travel behavior of Mexican residents abroad.
Tuesday, May 13: Inflation in the US
- Results of Government Securities Auction
- Heavy Truck Industry Administrative Register (April)
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April in the US
Every Tuesday, the Banco de México will announce the results of the government securities auction. This information is relevant for understanding demand for local debt instruments and interest rate levels of instruments like Cetes, reflecting sovereign risk confidence, system liquidity, and expected interest rate direction.
Meanwhile, in the US, significant economic data starts to be published on Tuesdays. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average variation in prices paid by households for a basket of goods and services. It is the primary inflation indicator in the US, used to assess purchasing power and guide monetary policy adjustments.
Thursday, May 15: Banxico Announcement
- Banco de México Monetary Policy Decision
- Monthly Industrial Manufacturing Survey (March)
- Prompt Indicator of Private Consumption (April)
- US Retail Sales (April)
- US Producer Price Index (PPI) (April)
- New US Unemployment Insurance Claims
On Thursday, the Banco de México is expected to announce its monetary policy decision. The bank’s governing board will determine the reference interest rate level in the country, which helps control inflation and maintain price stability, influencing credit costs, consumption, investment, and exchange rates.
The US retail sales figures are also anticipated. These numbers measure total consumer spending in physical and online stores, reflecting the strength of consumption—which accounts for more than two-thirds of the US GDP. It is crucial for anticipating GDP growth pace and potential monetary policy adjustments.
Additionally, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) is another significant pricing indicator for the week. It measures average variation in prices received by US producers for their goods and services, considered a leading indicator of inflationary pressures as it reflects changes before reaching the final consumer.
Lastly, as usual every Thursday in the US, new unemployment insurance claims will be released. This data measures how many people first sought economic support after losing their jobs, providing an early indicator of labor market health and potential changes in consumption, economic growth, and monetary policy.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the Monthly Indicator of Industrial Activity (IMAI)? The IMAI measures the performance of key sectors like mining, manufacturing, construction, and energy in Mexico. It helps assess trends, industrial cycles, and predict GDP growth.
- Why is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) important? The CPI measures average price variations for a basket of goods and services paid by US households. It is the primary inflation indicator in the US, guiding monetary policy adjustments.
- What does the Banco de México Monetary Policy Decision entail? The decision determines the reference interest rate level in Mexico, influencing credit costs, consumption, investment, and exchange rates to control inflation and maintain price stability.
- Why are US retail sales figures significant? These numbers reflect total consumer spending in physical and online stores, indicating the strength of consumption—which accounts for more than two-thirds of the US GDP. They help anticipate GDP growth pace and potential monetary policy adjustments.
- What do new unemployment insurance claims tell us? This data measures the number of people who first sought economic support after losing their jobs, providing an early indicator of labor market health and potential changes in consumption, economic growth, and monetary policy.
