Overview
The first week of November will be bustling with economic indicators in the country, covering topics such as expectations for the economy, remittances, consumer confidence, fixed investment, private consumption, formal employment, and inflation. Additionally, the Banco de México will announce its monetary policy decision.
Monday, November 3: Expectations Survey
Remittances from Mexico (September)
- Mexican remittances serve as a crucial income source for households.
- Sustained growth reinforces consumption capacity in receiving regions, while a decrease implies potential slowdown.
- This indicator is a key reference for anticipating internal spending in upcoming months.
Private Sector Expectations Survey (October)
- The Banco de México survey of private sector experts will reveal projections for inflation, exchange rate, and growth.
- A downward revision in expected prices and an upward adjustment in GDP would support confidence in monetary policy.
- Deterioration in expectations could signal caution in investment.
Monthly Business Opinion Survey (October)
- The Monthly Business Opinion Survey (EMOE) measures business activity and sentiment.
- Firm manufacturing orders and increased confidence suggest short-term production and investment expansion.
- Weak expectations indicate potential deceleration and cautious hiring, inventory management, and investment plans.
Tuesday, November 4: Consumer Confidence
National Consumer Confidence Survey (October)
- This survey assesses household sentiment regarding their current and future situations.
- Improvement implies greater willingness to spend and a robust internal market; decline suggests caution amidst inflation and high interest rates.
- It serves as a gauge for consumption during the year’s end.
Government Securities Auction Results
- The Banco de México will publish results from the government securities auction, including Cetes, Bonos, and Udibonos.
- High demand reflects confidence in Mexican debt, while low demand suggests caution.
Job Openings from JOLTS Survey (September) in the U.S.
- The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) in the U.S. will reveal the number of vacant positions.
- A lower number indicates a cooling labor market, while an increase suggests strong job demand.
- The results will influence inflation and monetary policy expectations by the Federal Reserve.
Wednesday, November 5: Fixed Investment
Preliminary Gross Fixed Capital Formation (August) in Mexico
- Data on machinery, equipment, and construction will highlight private sector fixed investment in Mexico.
- Growth in infrastructure linked to nearshoring supports increased potential, while a decline indicates business caution.
- This outcome is crucial for anticipating productivity and capital formation.
Preliminary Monthly Consumption Private Indicator (August)
- The Inegi’s timely private consumption indicator summarizes household spending on goods and services.
- Strong growth supports internal market-oriented commerce and manufacturing; declines suggest lower GDP dynamics.
- It will be interpreted alongside confidence, remittance, and employment data to outline the quarter’s tone.
IMSS Monthly Report on Newly Registered Jobs (October)
- An increase in the number of IMSS-registered employees signals dynamic formal job creation and a robust internal market.
- A decrease implies lower economic activity and hiring.
ADP Private Employment Estimate (October) in the U.S.
- The ADP’s private employment estimate offers a preliminary signal for the official U.S. employment report.
- Given the partial U.S. federal government shutdown, these figures are crucial in the absence of non-agricultural payroll and unemployment rate data.
OECD’s Oil Inventory Changes
- OECD oil inventory changes reflect supply and demand dynamics.
- Persistent declines put pressure on prices and transportation costs, while increases suggest lower consumption or higher production, easing inflation.
- High energy costs typically reduce income and industrial margins.
Thursday, November 6: Banxico Announcement
Banco de México Monetary Policy Decision (November)
- The Banco de México’s governing board will decide on the appropriate target rate and its forward guidance.
- A tone leaning towards cuts would anchor inflation expectations and ease financial conditions in the country.
- This decision is crucial amid signs of economic weakness.
Friday, November 7: Inflation
Consumer Price Index (October) in Mexico
- The monthly report on consumer prices, both general and underlying, will allow for evaluating the price trajectory near year-end.
- A contained reading supports gradual rate adjustments throughout 2026; a rise, especially in services, complicates the outlook.
- It will be vital for interest rate expectations.
National Producer Price Index (October)
- The producer price index functions as an early signal of business costs.
- Moderation reduces transfer risks to consumers; pressures on imported or energy inputs warn of margins and price hikes.
- Readings alongside the CPI will outline the inflation outlook as the year concludes.
