Introduction
The upcoming week in Mexico will bring a series of economic indicators, including trade balance, industrial activity, the heavy vehicle automotive sector, poverty lines, and private consumption. Meanwhile, in the United States, attention will focus on inflation data expected on Thursday.
Monday, November 10: Trade Balance
Revised Merchandise Trade Balance Figures (September)
- Revised September figures for Mexico’s merchandise trade balance will be published.
On Monday, revised figures for Mexico’s merchandise trade balance in September will be released. This adjustment to the data will help clarify the behavior of external trade before the end of the third quarter. The report will complement information on manufacturing activity and international trade during the third quarter.
Tuesday, November 11: Industrial Activity
Monthly Indicator of Industrial Activity, preliminary (September)
- Preliminary Monthly Indicator of Industrial Activity (September)
- Results of the government securities auction
- Heavy Vehicle Automotive Industry Administrative Registration (October)
- Preliminary International Traveler Survey (September)
The Monthly Indicator of Industrial Activity by INEGI will measure the evolution of sectors such as manufacturing, construction, electricity generation, and mining. This information will allow us to know the recent behavior of national production and measure its contribution to overall economic performance.
Every Tuesday, BANXIC will publish the results of the government securities auction. This report serves as a gauge for confidence in sovereign debt and expectations regarding the trajectory of interest rates. High positions reflect confidence, while lower demand indicates caution about the economic environment.
On the same day, the heavy vehicle automotive industry administrative registration will be highlighted. This information allows us to know production and sales in the automotive segment in Mexico, serving as a reference for manufacturers and demand levels in the transport sector, crucial elements to evaluate the industry’s behavior.
Additionally, the International Traveler Survey will show the flow of tourists entering and leaving the country. An increase in international visitor arrivals would support foreign exchange income and tourism as a driver of the services sector. A decline would reflect slower dynamics or higher travel costs.
Wednesday, November 12: Poverty Lines
Poverty Lines (October)
- Poverty Lines for October, equivalent to the monetary values of the food and non-food basket per person per month.
INEGI will report October poverty lines, equivalent to the monetary values of food and non-food baskets per person per month. Following Coneval’s disappearance, INEGI took over this indicator’s measurement this year.
Thursday, November 13: Inflation in the US
Inflation in the United States (October)
- Initial Jobless Claims in the United States
- Oil Inventory Report by IEA
The US inflation data will be the central economic report of the week. A moderation in the general or underlying index would reinforce expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. A higher reading, however, would prolong market caution and dampen relaxation bets.
It’s worth noting that the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles and publishes inflation data, largely suspends operations during federal government shutdowns. Although they sometimes manage to process already collected data, today’s publication is not guaranteed.
Meanwhile, weekly initial jobless claims will offer additional signals about the health of the US labor market. An increase in support reflects cooling economic activity and lower wage pressure, while a decrease suggests potential inflationary risks. This publication is also not guaranteed.
In contrast, the IEA’s oil inventory report will reveal movements in crude oil inventories. A reduction would indicate higher demand or lower supply, potentially driving up prices; an increase would suggest weakening energy consumption and downward pressure on prices.
Friday, November 14: Private Consumption
Preliminary Indicator of Private Consumption, preliminary (October)
- Preliminary Private Consumption Indicator, a summary of household spending on goods and services.
INEGI will publish its preliminary private consumption indicator, a summary of household spending on goods and services, concluding the week. An advance would signal resilience in domestic markets and a possible rebound in trade. A decline would indicate lower internal demand and purchasing power.
