Introduction
As we enter the second half of 2023, Mexico and the United States will release a series of crucial economic reports. These indicators, including remittances, private consumption, vehicle exports, consumer confidence, and formal employment, will provide insights into the health of both nations’ economies. Here’s a detailed look at what to expect in the first week of July.
Tuesday, July 2: Remittances
Mexico:
- External remittances (May)
- Monthly Business Outlook Survey (June)
- Private Sector Expectations Survey (June)
- Results of government bond auction
- JOLTS Job Openings Survey (May) in the US
On Tuesday, Mexico will release the external remittances data by Banco de México (Banxico). This figure represents the money flowing into Mexico from abroad, primarily from family members. It’s a critical indicator of household purchasing power, influencing domestic consumption and balance of payments. Additionally, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) will publish the Monthly Business Outlook Survey, gathering business perceptions on current and future sector conditions. This survey covers production, demand, investment, and employment, helping identify shifts in productive activity and adjust macroeconomic policies.
Banxico will also share the results of its survey on private sector expectations, collecting projections from economic analysts on key variables like inflation, economic growth, and exchange rates. These results reflect market consensus on Mexico’s economic trajectory, aiding investors’ decision-making.
United States:
The US will focus on the results of government bond auctions, detailing amounts, rates, and conditions for issuing debt through instruments like bonds or CETES. This report reflects market demand for public debt, country risk perception, and expectations on inflation, monetary policy, and future interest rates.
Wednesday, July 3: Vehicle Exports
Mexico:
- Administrative Register of the Light Vehicle Industry (June)
- ADP Change in Non-Agricultural Employment (June) in the US
- Oil Crude Inventory Report by IEA
Inegi will publish the administrative register of Mexico’s light vehicle industry, offering valuable insights into industrial dynamism and private consumption. High production and export numbers usually indicate strong external demand. These figures become even more significant amid protectionist trade policies.
United States:
The ADP report on non-agricultural employment change measures monthly variations in private sector (non-agricultural) jobs in the US, based on payroll data from over 25 million workers. It’s a leading indicator of the labor market, influencing economic and monetary expectations.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) will release the weekly oil crude inventory report, revealing US crude levels. A larger-than-expected drop may indicate strong demand or limited supply, affecting oil prices and reflecting the country’s energy health.
Thursday, July 4: Private Consumption
Mexico:
- Monthly Private Consumption Indicator (April)
- Monthly Fixed Capital Formation Indicator (April)
- New US Unemployment Insurance Claims
- US Non-Agricultural Payrolls (June)
Mexico’s National Private Consumption Indicator, published by Inegi, reflects household consumption behavior, crucial for assessing domestic demand and economic growth.
United States:
New unemployment insurance claims show the number of individuals seeking jobless benefits for the first time in the US. These figures act as a labor market thermometer; an increase may signal economic weakness, while a decrease suggests strength, influencing monetary policy decisions.
The US Non-Agricultural Payrolls report reveals the number of jobs created or lost in non-agricultural sectors during a month. This report is vital for evaluating the country’s economic health and can impact Reserve Federal policy decisions, significantly affecting market prices.
Friday, July 5: Consumer Confidence
United States:
- Independence Day Holiday
- National Consumer Confidence Survey (June)
- Cyclical Indicators System (April)
- Number of workers affiliated with the IMSS (June)
Mexico:
The National Consumer Confidence Survey (ENCO), conducted monthly by Inegi and Banxico, measures household economic perceptions and expectations. It targets individuals over 18 in Mexico’s 32 entities, using face-to-face interviews in a representative sample of 2,336 urban households.
Cyclical Indicators System:
This system consists of two composite indicators called the Coincident and Leading Indexes. The former reflects the overall economic state and turning points (peaks and troughs), while the latter anticipates Coincident Index turning points based on available component information at a specific date.
IMSS Affiliated Workers:
The number of workers affiliated with the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) is a key metric for evaluating formal employment in Mexico. It reports the total registered jobs at IMSS, including both permanent and temporary positions, offering a clear and updated view of the labor market dynamics.
