Overview
The second week of September brings a series of economic indicators from both Mexico and the United States. These include data on formal employment, inflation, trade balance, industrial activity, and international travelers. Here’s a detailed breakdown of what to expect from September 8 through 12.
Monday, September 8: Formal Employment
Data: Number of insured workers in the IMSS (August)
- In Mexico, the number of formally employed workers registered with the IMSS for August will be released on Friday. This figure serves as a key indicator of formal employment in the country and is used to assess labor market trends, particularly within the private non-agricultural sector.
Tuesday, September 9: Inflation in Mexico
Data:
- Mexico’s National Consumer Price Index (INPC) for August, including monthly, annual variation, and subjacent components
- Mexico’s Balance of Merchandise Trade (July)
- Light Vehicle Administrative Registration in Mexico (August)
- Heavy Vehicle Administrative Registration in Mexico (August)
- Results of Mexico’s government securities auction
On Tuesday, Mexico will publish the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) for August. This data set helps evaluate the general price trend in Mexico and provides fundamental signals for the Banco de México’s monetary policy. Additionally, the revised Balance of Merchandise Trade for July will be released, measuring the difference between exports and imports. A trade surplus indicates dynamism and competitiveness in international sales, while a deficit may reflect higher domestic demand or reduced competitiveness.
The administrative registration of light vehicles in Mexico will offer insights into sales and production within the automotive sector during August. This data is crucial as the automotive industry is a significant export driver and an indicator of manufacturing activity and employment in key regions.
Heavy vehicle administrative registration data will shed light on the progress of this segment. Production and commercialization of heavy vehicles are essential indicators for cargo transportation and overall economic dynamism, as they’re linked to sectors like logistics, foreign trade, and construction.
Lastly, the Banco de México will publish results from government securities auctions, providing information on demand for the country’s debt instruments. Interest rates and institutional investor participation offer key insights into inflation expectations and financial conditions in the local economy.
Wednesday, September 10: Producer Prices in the US
Data:
- US Producer Price Index (August)
- US Crude Oil Inventories by the IEA
Midweek, the US will release the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August. This indicator is considered a leading gauge of potential inflationary pressures that may eventually affect consumers, closely watched by the Federal Reserve.
The IEA’s US crude oil inventories data will provide a snapshot of the balance between energy supply and demand. Rising stocks put downward pressure on international crude prices, while falling stocks suggest potential price increases with direct implications for inflation.
Thursday, September 11: Inflation in the US
Data:
- Mexico’s Monthly Indicator of Industrial Activity (July)
- Mexico’s International Traveler Surveys (July)
- US Inflation (August)
- New US Unemployment Benefit Applications
- Decision on Monetary Policy by the European Central Bank
On Thursday, Mexico’s Monthly Indicator of Industrial Activity (IMAI) will showcase the evolution of manufacturing, mining, and construction production in Mexico. This indicator serves as a reference for anticipating GDP trends and evaluating internal economic dynamics based on global and local demand changes.
The preliminary results of Mexico’s International Traveler Surveys for July will be available, measuring foreign visitor spending and behavior, as well as Mexican nationals’ travel abroad. This data aids in understanding the tourism balance and its contribution to service sector activity.
The US inflation data for August will be crucial for the Federal Reserve, following recent weak employment figures. These numbers could determine if there are pressures warranting a continued monetary stance or if there’s room to move toward the anticipated expansionary policy, potentially lowering interest rates.
New US unemployment benefit applications will offer insights into labor market health. An increase in claims would suggest cooling hiring and heightened risk of slowdown, while stable numbers would moderate the likelihood of a policy shift.
Finally, the European Central Bank will announce its monetary policy decision and hold a press conference to detail their stance. Investors worldwide will be attentive for any changes in interest rates, seeking clues about inflation and financial stability in the region.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What is being measured in Mexico’s Monthly Indicator of Industrial Activity (IMAI)?
A: The IMAI measures the evolution of manufacturing, mining, and construction production in Mexico. - Q: How do rising or falling US crude oil inventories affect international crude prices?
A: Rising stocks typically put downward pressure on international crude prices, while falling stocks suggest potential price increases. - Q: What role does the US Producer Price Index (PPI) play in monetary policy decisions?
A: The PPI is considered a leading gauge of potential inflationary pressures that may eventually affect consumers, closely watched by the Federal Reserve. - Q: How do Mexico’s International Traveler Surveys contribute to understanding the tourism balance?
A: These surveys measure foreign visitor spending and behavior, as well as Mexican nationals’ travel abroad, aiding in understanding the tourism balance and its contribution to service sector activity. - Q: What factors influence new US unemployment benefit applications?
A: An increase in claims suggests cooling hiring and heightened risk of slowdown, while stable numbers moderate the likelihood of a policy shift in monetary policy. - Q: How does the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision impact global financial markets?
A: Investors worldwide are attentive for any changes in interest rates, seeking clues about inflation and financial stability in the region.
