Overview
This week in Mexico, a series of economic indicators will be released, covering consumer confidence, light and heavy vehicles, inflation, trade balance, industrial activity, and international traveler arrivals. Meanwhile, in the United States, crucial data such as nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rates remain pending due to the government shutdown. Additionally, minutes from recent policy meetings of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Banco de México (Banxico) are expected.
Monday, October 6: Consumer Confidence
Encuesta Nacional sobre Confianza del Consumidor (ENCO)
- The National Consumer Confidence Survey (September) by Inegi and Banxico measures household sentiment regarding their current and future economic situations.
An increase in the index indicates greater optimism about consumption and the economy, while a decrease suggests caution.
Tuesday, October 7: Light Vehicles
Results of Government Securities Auction in Mexico
- Banco de México will publish the results of the government securities auction, including instruments like Cetes, Bonds, and Udibonos.
Administrative Registration of the Light Vehicle Industry in Mexico (September)
- The Inegi will release the light vehicle registration data, a key indicator of domestic demand and industrial dynamism.
This data reflects the production and commercialization of automobiles in Mexico, a sector driven by nearshoring. An increase signals industrial strength and improved export prospects to North America.
Wednesday, October 8: Fed Minutes
Minutes of Monetary Policy Meetings by the Federal Reserve
- The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee minutes will provide insights into the direction of US monetary policy.
Oil Crude Inventories Report by the IEA in the United States
- The International Energy Agency’s weekly report on oil crude inventories serves as a benchmark for anticipating oil prices.
A decrease in inventories usually implies higher demand and upward pressure on oil prices, while an increase may reflect lower consumption and temporary declines in energy prices.
Thursday, October 9: Inflation
Inflation in Mexico (September)
- The National Consumer Price Index and its underlying index in Mexico measure general and structural price variations.
Mexico’s National Producer Price Index (September)
- This index measures the variation in producer prices, offering insights into potential inflationary pressures.
Mexico’s Merchandise Trade Balance (August)
- The Inegi will release revised trade balance figures, which reflect the difference between exports and imports of goods.
Administrative Registration of the Heavy Vehicle Industry in Mexico (September)
- This data reflects heavy vehicle production and commercialization in Mexico, offering insights into industrial strength.
Minutes of Monetary Policy Meetings by Banco de México
- These minutes will shed light on the Banxico’s discussions regarding inflation and monetary policy.
New Unemployment Insurance Claims in the United States
- These claims provide an immediate reading on labor market dynamics.
Statements by Jerome Powell, Fed Chair (October)
- Powell’s remarks will be closely watched for insights into the Fed’s stance on interest rates and economic conditions.
The National Consumer Price Index and its underlying index in Mexico measure general and structural price variations. A controlled figure reinforces the inflation stability perspective, allowing Banxico to continue lowering its reference interest rate. A rise complicates the scenario, especially if the underlying inflation persists.
The revised trade balance figures from Inegi reflect the difference between exports and imports of goods. A surplus indicates greater dynamism, driven by nearshoring and US demand, while a deficit suggests lower competitiveness or increased imports of intermediate goods.
The Banxico minutes, expected on the same day, showcase discussions on inflation and monetary policy. The focus will be on the interest rate cycle, balance of risks, and global environment’s impact on local economic variables.
New unemployment insurance claims in the US offer an immediate labor market dynamics reading. An increase signals cooling, while a decrease implies resilience. This week gains extra relevance as the previous publication was omitted due to the federal government shutdown.
Friday, October 10: Industrial Activity
Preliminary Figures of International Traveler Surveys in Mexico (August)
- The Inegi will release preliminary data from the International Traveler Surveys, which measures international tourist flow and related income.
Monthly Indicator of Industrial Activity in Mexico (August)
- The Indicator of Monthly Industrial Activity (IMAI) evaluates Mexican industrial production in key sectors like manufacturing, mining, and construction.
Nonfarm Payrolls Report and Unemployment Rate in the United States (September)
- These crucial labor market indicators were delayed due to the US federal government shutdown.
Preliminary Figures of International Traveler Surveys in Mexico (August)
- These figures reflect international tourist flow and related income, offering insights into the dynamics of this vital foreign exchange source.
Monthly Indicator of Industrial Activity in Mexico (August)
- The IMAI assesses Mexican industrial production in key sectors like manufacturing, mining, and construction, offering insights into GDP performance.
An uptick in the IMAI signals industrial consolidation supported by nearshoring, while a downturn may reflect weaker external demand or reduced productive investment.
Delayed Nonfarm Payrolls Report and Unemployment Rate in the United States (September)
- These labor market indicators were postponed due to the US federal government shutdown.
Job creation would bolster the dollar and reinforce economic confidence, while a rise in unemployment would increase expectations for interest rate cuts.
