Monday, September 15: Government Securities Auction
- Results of Mexico’s Government Securities Auction
Due to the Mexican Independence Day holiday, the Bank of Mexico will publish the results of the government securities auction one day early. These data reflect demand for public debt instruments and are a crucial reference for measuring market expectations on inflation, interest rates, and confidence in national monetary policy.
Tuesday, September 16: US Retail Sales
- Mexico’s Independence Day Holiday
- US Retail Sales (August)
On Tuesday, Mexico will observe a holiday for the Independence Day celebrations, reducing local market activity. Financial institutions, the Mexican Stock Exchange, and other financial intermediaries will be closed, with no stock market operations. However, activity will continue in the US.
In the United States, the anticipated retail sales data will be released on Tuesday. This figure, along with its underlying component, provides insight into household spending, a critical gauge of economic health. A rise would confirm robust growth and limit expectations for interest rate cuts, while weak numbers would strengthen the case for monetary adjustments.
Wednesday, September 17: Private Consumption and Manufacturing Survey
- Mexico’s Oportuno Indicator of Private Consumption (August)
- Mexico’s Monthly Manufacturing Survey (July)
- Fed’s Monetary Policy Decision
- Eurozone Inflation (August)
Midweek, Mexico’s Oportuno Indicator of Private Consumption will be released, measuring in-home spending. This data is vital for understanding the strength of domestic demand, which significantly contributes to national economic growth and serves as a barometer for productive activity and household purchasing power.
The Monthly Manufacturing Survey (EMIM) will also provide preliminary July results, offering insights into industrial production, employment, and wages. This is a crucial indicator of the manufacturing sector’s evolution, one of Mexico’s primary drivers of economic growth and employment.
All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve, which will announce its monetary policy decision. With the reference rate currently at 4.5%, a widely anticipated 25 basis point cut is expected due to recent signals of labor market weakness. Post-announcement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference will be crucial.
Thursday, September 18: Jobless Claims
- US Initial Jobless Claims
On Thursday, the weekly report of new US unemployment insurance claims will be released, offering a weekly labor market measurement. A significant increase would reflect decreased hiring momentum and reinforce expectations for an interest rate reduction cycle following the anticipated September adjustment.
Friday, September 19: Economic Activity Indicator
- Mexico’s Oportuno Indicator of Economic Activity (August)
On Friday, the Oportuno Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE) will be highlighted. This advance estimate, published by INEGI, anticipates the behavior of the Indicador Global de la Actividad Económica (IGAE). Its significance lies in providing an early signal about the overall economic performance, aiding policy decisions, financial analysis, and corporate planning.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is being tracked in Mexico’s economy this week? This week, Mexico will release data on private consumption, manufacturing activity, and the overall economic activity indicator.
- Why are US retail sales important? US retail sales, along with their underlying component, offer insights into household spending, which is crucial for gauging economic health.
- What does the Mexican Oportuno Indicator of Private Consumption measure? This indicator measures in-home spending, providing insights into domestic demand strength.
- Why is the Fed’s monetary policy decision significant? The Federal Reserve’s decision impacts interest rates and market expectations, influencing economic growth and employment.
- What do US initial jobless claims indicate? Weekly new unemployment insurance claims offer a measurement of labor market dynamics.
- What does Mexico’s Oportuno Indicator of Economic Activity signify? This indicator provides an early signal about the overall economic performance, aiding various stakeholders in decision-making processes.
