Overview
The final week of June is scheduled to release several crucial economic indicators, including economic activity, inflation, trade balance, and employment levels. Additionally, the Bank of Mexico will announce its monetary policy for the country.
Monday, June 23: Economic Activity
Indicators:
- Global Indicator of Economic Activity (April)
- Mexico’s Retail Sales (April)
- Monthly Services Survey (April)
- US Manufacturing PMI (June)
- US Services PMI (June)
The week kicks off with the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE), which measures the monthly evolution of Mexico’s economy and serves as an early estimate of GDP. Published by Inegi, this data helps identify economic cycles, evaluate public policies, and prepare investment decisions.
On Monday, Mexico’s retail sales data is also expected, offering insights into private consumption behavior through the income of retail businesses. Published monthly by Inegi, this data is crucial as consumption contributes significantly to the GDP. The data may signal economic dynamism or anticipate slowdowns.
Tuesday, June 24: Inflation
Indicators:
- Inflation for the first half of the month in Mexico (first half of June)
- National Survey of Construction Companies (April)
- Results of government bond auction
- US Consumer Confidence by The Conference Board (June)
- Statements from Jerome Powell, Fed President
On Tuesday, Mexico’s inflation data for the first half of the month will be released. Published by Inegi, these figures show the average change in prices of goods and services. They enable evaluating purchasing power strength and guiding Mexico’s monetary policy.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Mexico will announce the results of government bond auctions every Tuesday. This information is relevant for knowing demand for local debt instruments and levels of interest rates on instruments like Cetes. It’s crucial as it reflects confidence in sovereign risk, system liquidity, and the anticipated direction of interest rates.
The Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence data will also be released, indicating the perception of the American consumer about the economy. As consumption accounts for more than two-thirds of the US GDP, high levels usually translate to increased spending, while declines suggest possible economic slowdowns.
Jerome Powell’s public statements, the Fed president, have significant influence on global financial markets. His comments can anticipate shifts in monetary policy or changes in inflation, impacting stock investors and currency traders like those dealing with the Mexican peso.
Wednesday, June 25: Housing Sales in the US
Indicators:
- New Home Sales in the US
- Oil Crude Inventory by IEA
On Wednesday, attention will be on the IEA’s (International Energy Agency) oil crude inventory data. These weekly changes in stored crude oil showcase the balance between supply and demand in the energy market. They allow evaluating the equilibrium amidst the recent Israel-Iran conflict context.
Thursday, June 26: Banxico Decision
Indicators:
- Banxico’s Monetary Policy Decision
- Mexico’s Merchandise Trade Balance (May, timely figures)
- New US Unemployment Insurance Claims
On Thursday, the focus will be on the Bank of Mexico’s monetary policy decision. The authority will determine an appropriate level for its key interest rate, affecting credit costs, consumption, and investment. It is anticipated that the central bank will lower its benchmark rate by 50 basis points, similar to its previous decision, bringing it down to 8%.
In the US, new unemployment insurance claims are released every Thursday. This data measures how many people first sought economic assistance after losing their jobs, serving as an early indicator of labor market health that can predict changes in consumption, economic growth, and monetary policy.
Friday, June 27: Employment and Occupation
Indicators:
- National Occupation and Employment Survey (May)
- US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE, personal consumption expenditure) (May)
On Friday, the National Occupation and Employment Survey is expected to be published. The ENOE (Encuesta Nacional de Occupación y Empleo) is Mexico’s primary source of labor data. Published by Inegi, it provides employment, unemployment, informality, and underemployment figures. Its importance lies in diagnosing the labor market and evaluating the impact of policies on job creation and quality.
In the US, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data will be released. The PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in the US. Unlike the CPI, the PCE accounts for changes in consumption patterns and offers a broader perspective.
