Overview
This week, economic analysts will be closely monitoring the release of GDP growth reports for Mexico and the United States in the first quarter of 2023. Other significant reports include unemployment rates, trade balances, and business outlooks.
Monday, April 28: Employment and Occupation
Mexico:
- National Employment and Occupation Survey (ENOE) for March
- Preliminary Mexico Merchandise Trade Balance
- Government Values Survey Results
The week begins with the National Employment and Occupation Survey (ENOE), conducted by Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi). This ongoing survey provides insights into Mexico’s labor market, measuring employment, unemployment, informality, and other labor conditions to study the dynamics of national, state, and sociodemographic employment.
United States:
The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) will release the results of government securities auctions on Monday, offering crucial information about public debt demand and market expectations regarding interest rates and economic stability. These data points reflect confidence in Mexico’s fiscal strength, influencing the country’s financing costs and Cetes performance.
Tuesday, April 29: Tourism Activity
Mexico:
- Trimesterly Indicators of Tourism Activity (ITAT) by Inegi
- Consumer Confidence Index by The Conference Board (April)
- JOLTS Job Openings Survey (March)
- China’s Manufacturing PMI (April)
On Tuesday, Mexico’s Trimesterly Indicators of Tourism Activity (ITAT) by Inegi will be highlighted. This report assesses the economic behavior of Mexico’s tourism sector, estimating tourism GDP and domestic tourism consumption. These data points are crucial for evaluating the contribution of tourism to Mexico’s quarterly economic growth.
United States:
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, measuring US households’ optimism about the current and future economic situation, will be released. This index, based on monthly surveys, helps understand consumer spending patterns and anticipate shifts in household economic behavior.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will also be released, offering insights into job vacancies, hirings, and separations in the United States. This data helps evaluate labor market demand dynamics.
Wednesday, April 30: GDP Growth and Policy Decisions
Mexico:
- Preliminary Estimate of Mexico’s GDP (Q1) by Inegi
- US Non-Agricultural Job Changes (April)
- US GDP Trimesterly (Q1) by Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
- Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Inflation
- Bank of Japan Policy Decision
Wednesday will be the most robust day in this week’s economic indicators lineup. Mexico’s Inegi will release the Preliminary Estimate of GDP, providing early insights into Mexico’s economic growth. Based on partial yet representative information, this report anticipates the evolution of the Gross Domestic Product.
United States:
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will publish the Q1 GDP figures, a crucial indicator for the world’s largest economy. This release comes after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its US growth projections downward.
The ADP’s Non-Farm Private Sector Job Changes report will also be released, estimating employment variations in the US private sector (excluding agriculture). This report serves as an early indicator of labor market trends before the official government employment report.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Inflation Index, measuring price variations for goods and services purchased by US consumers, will be released. The BEA’s preferred inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve to assess price trends and inform monetary decisions.
The Bank of Japan’s policy decision will also be announced, setting interest rates and other tools to influence the Japanese economy. This decision impacts inflation control, yen stabilization, and growth promotion, potentially affecting global and regional markets.
Thursday, May 1: Labor Market and Unemployment
Mexico: Día del Trabajo (Labor Day) Feriado
United States:
- New Unemployment Insurance Claims
As usual, the weekly report on new unemployment insurance claims in the United States will be released on Thursday. This figure indicates the number of individuals seeking government assistance for unemployment for the first time, published by the Department of Labor and serving as a labor market thermometer.
Friday, May 2: Business Outlooks and Inflation
Mexico:
- Monthly Business Opinion Survey (EMOE) by Inegi
- US Non-Farm Payrolls (April) by Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
- Eurozone Inflation (April)
In Mexico, the Inegi will publish the results of the Monthly Business Opinion Survey, capturing perceptions of Mexican businesses regarding economic conditions and expectations. The survey evaluates sectors like manufacturing, construction, commerce, and services, offering insights into investment, production, and employment trends.
United States:
The BLS will release the Non-Farm Payrolls report, measuring job creation or loss across all US sectors (excluding agriculture, government, households, and nonprofits). This report is crucial for the Federal Reserve, also providing hourly wage and unemployment data.
Eurozone inflation for April will also be released, measuring price variations for goods and services in the Eurozone.
