Background on the Mexican Peso and its Recent Performance
The Mexican Peso has been on an upward trend against the US Dollar, gaining 13.89% annually, as of late November. This progress is supported by the weakening dollar and cautious market sentiment ahead of crucial US economic data releases.
Market Performance and Analyst Predictions
On Monday, the exchange rate closed at 17.9816 pesos per dollar, marking a 1.78-cent increase or 0.10% compared to Friday’s closing, according to Banco de México data.
Monex Casa de Bolsa analysts forecasted a trading range of 17.93 to 18.02 pesos per dollar overnight, backed by the dollar’s retreat and anticipation of the first-quarter inflation report and Mexico’s trade balance.
In December so far, the peso has appreciated 1.71% against the dollar, and it has gained 13.89% for the year.
US Dollar Index and Key Economic Reports
The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, stood at 98.30 points—a 0.30% decrease from the previous close.
Analysts estimated that the dollar might stabilize between 98.09 and 98.50 points overnight, given the ongoing downward trend and anticipation of the preliminary Q3 2025 GDP report from the United States, to be released tomorrow.
Impact of Fed Officials’ Comments
The dollar reacted to comments made over the weekend by Beth Hammack, President of the Cleveland Fed. She suggested that it’s an appropriate time to pause interest rate cuts and assess the effects of adjustments made in Q1 2026.
Although Hammack did not have a voting role in monetary policy decisions this year, her participation in 2026 lends more weight to her statements in the market.
Local Economic Indicators
The Global Activity Index (IGAE), a key economic indicator in Mexico, reported a monthly rebound of 0.98% following September’s 0.44% decline. This represents its largest monthly increase since July 2024.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is driving the Mexican Peso’s gains against the US Dollar? The peso’s rise is supported by a weakening dollar and cautious market sentiment ahead of crucial US economic data releases.
- What are analysts predicting for the peso-dollar exchange rate? Monex Casa de Bolsa analysts forecast a trading range of 17.93 to 18.02 pesos per dollar overnight.
- How is the US Dollar Index performing? The index stood at 98.30 points, a 0.30% decrease from the previous close.
- What are analysts’ expectations for the US GDP report? Analysts estimate that the dollar might stabilize between 98.09 and 98.50 points overnight, given the ongoing downward trend and anticipation of the preliminary Q3 2025 GDP report.
- What impact do Fed officials’ comments have on the market? Beth Hammack’s suggestion to pause interest rate cuts and assess their effects has contributed to market cautiousness.
- What recent developments have been reported in Mexico’s local economic indicators? The Global Activity Index (IGAE) showed a monthly rebound of 0.98% in November, following September’s 0.44% decline.
