Background on Key Figures and Institutions
The Mexican peso is currently trading steadily against the US dollar at the beginning of this week. This stability comes despite the peso being near its 18-month lows recorded last week, as traders await the monetary policy decision from the Federal Reserve (Fed), scheduled for Wednesday.
Current Exchange Rate and Dollar Performance
The spot exchange rate stands at 17.3777 pesos per dollar, showing a slight decrease of one cent or 0.06% compared to Friday’s close of 17.3677 pesos per dollar, according to official data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico).
The dollar’s trading range is between a high of 17.3991 pesos and a low of 17.3350 pesos. The Dollar Index (DXY), tracked by the Intercontinental Exchange, which compares the dollar to six reference currencies, has fallen by 0.53% to a level of 97.08.
Market Anticipation for Fed’s Policy Decision
Traders are gearing up for the first Fed decision of the year. Market expectations, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool that monitors dollar futures, indicate a 97.2% probability that the Fed will keep its interest rate unchanged.
Pressure on Peso Despite Dollar’s Weakness
Monex explains that the peso is under pressure despite the dollar’s weakness, as traders assess local economic data and adjust their expectations for Banxico’s monetary policy. Support and resistance levels are currently at 17.33 and 17.42 pesos, respectively.
Banco Base, a local institution, notes that the peso’s depreciation occurs despite the US dollar’s weakening, as indicated by its weighted index, which touched a new low since September 17, 2025. This is attributed to the United States’ protectionist stance.
Local Economic Data Release
The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) recently published the results of the National Occupation and Employment Survey, where the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for December stood at 2.6%, while the unadjusted figure was 2.4%.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What is the current status of the Mexican peso against the US dollar?
A: The Mexican peso is trading steadily against the US dollar at the start of this week, near its 18-month lows recorded last week.
- Q: What is the expected outcome of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision?
A: Market expectations, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, indicate a 97.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain its interest rate unchanged.
- Q: Why is the peso experiencing pressure despite the dollar’s weakness?
A: Traders are assessing local economic data and adjusting their expectations for Banxico’s monetary policy, causing pressure on the peso.
- Q: What recent local economic data was released by INEGI?
A: INEGI published the National Occupation and Employment Survey results, with a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 2.6% for December and an unadjusted figure of 2.4%.
