Overview of Mexican Stock Market Performance in 2025
The Mexican stock market experienced a three-day losing streak on Wednesday, with the S&P/BMV IPC dropping 0.09% to 64,308.29 points and the FTSE BIVA falling 0.12% to 1,272.51 points.
Despite the recent decline, both indices showed strong annual gains of approximately 30%. The S&P/BMV IPC increased by 29.9%, while the FTSE BIVA rose by 26.6% throughout 2025.
Reasons for Optimism
According to Monex analysts, the Mexican stock market’s optimistic stance can be attributed to expectations of progress in trade negotiations with the United States, upward trends in certain sectors like metals, and a favorable global outlook for emerging markets, especially in Latin America.
Looking Ahead: Challenges for 2026
Experts from Bx+ emphasize that the Mexican market’s attractiveness as an investment option is reinforced by a more optimistic economic outlook for Mexico, despite potential risks in 2026. They anticipate solid corporate fundamentals and favorable conditions, including increased consumption, investment project reactivation, and lower interest rates.
- Stronger Margins: Companies are expected to show improved margins due to cost and expense containment strategies, resilience against inflation, wage increases, and reduced pressure from dollar-denominated debt, benefiting net income.
- Key Factors for 2026: Economic growth, trade scenarios (including U.S.-China relations), Trump’s narrative and potential sector-specific measures, and monetary flexibility from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Banxico will shape the U.S. market’s trajectory.
- Potential Earnings Revisions: High expectations, increased news coverage, and questions surrounding artificial intelligence in the U.S. and China may lead to earnings revisions.
Wall Street Closes 2025 in Positive Territory
Although Wall Street indices fell in the final trading session of 2025, they had a strong year amidst trade uncertainty under President Donald Trump and enthusiasm for AI-focused stocks.
- S&P 500: -0.74% to 6,845.50 points
- Nasdaq Composite: -0.76% to 23,241.99 units
- Dow Jones: -0.63% to 48,063.29 points
In 2025, the S&P 500 gained 16.4%, the Nasdaq Composite rose by 20.4%, and the Dow Jones climbed 13%.
Factors Influencing U.S. Market Performance in 2026
Monex anticipates that U.S. market performance will depend on global economic growth, trade scenarios (including U.S.-China relations), Trump’s narrative and potential sector-specific measures, and monetary flexibility from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Banxico.
Moreover, potential earnings revisions due to high expectations, increased news coverage, and questions about artificial intelligence in the U.S. and China may impact market dynamics.
