Background on Key Figures and Context
Oil prices experienced a slight increase due to potential disruptions caused by a US block on Venezuelan oil tankers, as the market anticipates news about a possible peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. The key figures involved are US President Donald Trump, who aims to end the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II, and Ukrainian leaders who are responsible for taking the next step towards peace.
In a recent decision, European Union leaders opted to request cash loans amounting to €90 billion (approximately $105 billion) for Ukraine to finance its defense over the next two years instead of using frozen Russian assets. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin did not show any compromise on his conditions for ending the war and accused the European Union of attempting to “steal” Russian assets openly.
Impact on Oil Prices
As uncertainty looms over how the US intends to enforce Trump’s plan to block Venezuelan oil tankers, geopolitical premiums are tempered, affecting crude oil prices. Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, explained that this uncertainty weighs on oil prices.
Venezuela, which accounts for about 1% of global oil supplies, authorized two unsanctioned cargoes to leave for China on Thursday, according to sources familiar with Venezuela’s oil export operations. However, on the same day, a sanctioned tanker carrying approximately 300,000 barrels of gasoline from Russia entered Venezuelan waters, while three other sanctioned tankers either halted navigation or altered course in the Atlantic Ocean, as per ship-tracking data.
Oil Price Movements
- Brent Futures: Increased by 65 cents (1.09%) to close at $60.47 per barrel.
- West Texas Intermediate (WTI): Rose by 51 cents (0.91%) to close at $56.66 per barrel.
- Mexican Export Blend (MME): Climbed by 57 cents (1.09%) to reach $53.01 per barrel.
On a weekly basis, crude markers fell over one percentage point. The MME dropped 1.40%, followed by WTI with a 1.36% decrease, and Brent fell 1.06%. This marks two consecutive weeks of declines.
Using Pemex data up to December 19, the average MME price is $61.83 per barrel, which is 12.62% higher than the estimated average price for 2026 by Mexico’s Secretariat of Finance and Public Credit, which is $54.9 per barrel.
Expert Analysis
“The complex is registering small gains while staying above the minimums set at the beginning of this week, as it awaits further guidance on peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, as well as new headlines regarding the potential impact of Trump’s apparent tanker block on Venezuela,” stated analysts from Ritterbusch and Associates.
