Key Players and Their Strategies
Arabia Saudita, Rusia y seis otros países alineados en OPEC+ anunciaron un aumento de 137,000 barriles diarios en su producción de crudo para octubre, según un comunicado emitido el domingo.
Who are the key players?
- Arabia Saudita: A leading member of OPEC+ and a major global oil producer.
- Rusia: Another significant member of OPEC+ and a key player in the global energy market.
- Irak, Emiratos Árabes Unidos, Kuwait, Kazajistán, Omán y Argelia: Other members of OPEC+ contributing to the production increase.
OPEC+’s Shift in Strategy
Historically, OPEC+ has focused on reducing oil supply to stabilize prices through production cuts. However, since April, the group has adopted a strategy of increasing market share by rapidly raising production quotas.
These eight countries have already increased their production by 2.2 millones de barriles diarios in recent months and are now entering a new phase that could see the return of up to 1.65 millones de barriles diarios to the market.
Why the shift?
With demand for oil typically declining in the fourth quarter, analysts largely anticipated OPEC+ maintaining the status quo in October to prevent a price collapse amid an oversaturated market.
However, the production increase will be limited due to production constraints and a compensation mechanism within OPEC+, according to Jorge León, an analyst at Rystad Energy.
Potential Impact on Oil Prices
Despite the limited increase, the message is clear and could potentially push oil prices below $60 per barrel. The Brent crude benchmark, the global reference, closed just above $65 per barrel on Friday.
Geopolitical Factors
Experts continue to monitor the war in Ukraine and the evolving relationship between Washington and Moscú.
Russia relies on high oil prices to fund its military operations, and it may face difficulties in benefiting from higher quotas due to pressure from the US and Europe on its oil sector.
In August, the US president imposed additional tariffs on Indian products to penalize New Delhi for importing Russian oil. Furthermore, a White House spokesperson stated that during a conversation with allied leaders of Ukraine, Donald Trump urged Europe to “stop buying Russian oil,” specifically referring to Hungary and Slovakia’s imports.
