Soybean Futures in Chicago See First Annual Increase in Three Years
The most active soybean contract at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose by 3.93% in 2025, marking its first annual increase in three years. This upward trend was primarily driven by China’s return to the U.S. market following a trade truce in late October.
Key Players and Their Impact
China’s re-engagement with the U.S. market has been a significant factor in soybean prices. However, Mike Zuzolo, President of Global Commodity Analytics, points out that demand remains a challenge for soybeans. He notes the weekly export sales figures, which showed sluggish demand once again.
Grain Market Performance
In contrast to soybeans, wheat and corn futures experienced annual declines. The abundant global supply has put downward pressure on both commodities.
- Soybeans: The most active soybean contract in Chicago increased by 3.93% in 2025, closing at $10.5075 per bushel on Wednesday.
- Corn: Corn futures rose by 1 cent to $4.415 per bushel on the same day.
- Wheat: The most active wheat contract fell by 2.5 cents to $5.0825 per bushel on Wednesday.
Export Sales and Demand
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported on Wednesday that 987,100 metric tons of soybean export sales were made in the week ending December 18. Zuzolo highlights that corn continues to show strong export demand, unlike soybeans.
Global Supply and Geopolitical Factors
Zuzolo attributes the decline in wheat futures to excess global supply. He also dismisses any potential support from the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict and the lack of progress in peace talks. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and disruptions to Kazakhstan’s oil exports have further impacted global grain markets, given Ukraine’s status as a major exporter of wheat and corn.
Argentine Wheat Crop Forecast
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange announced on Tuesday that Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat crop is expected to reach a record high of 27.8 million tons, surpassing the previous record of 22.4 million tons set four years ago.
Record-Breaking Harvests in Major Producing Countries
Both the United States and Argentina have reported record-breaking harvests in 2025. The CBOT grain markets were closed on Thursday due to New Year’s Day festivities.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What drove the rise in soybean prices? A: The return of China to the U.S. market following a trade truce in late October primarily supported the increase.
- Q: Why did wheat and corn futures decline? A: The abundant global supply of both commodities put downward pressure on their prices.
- Q: How has geopolitical conflict affected grain markets? A: The Russia-Ukraine conflict and disruptions to Kazakhstan’s oil exports have negatively impacted global grain markets, with Ukraine being a significant exporter of wheat and corn.
- Q: What is the outlook for Argentina’s wheat crop? A: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange forecasts a record-breaking 27.8 million tons for the 2025/26 season, surpassing the previous record of 22.4 million tons.
