Introduction
The recent conflict in Gaza has led to significant changes in the Middle East, weakening Iran’s influence and its axis of resistance. The United States, under President Donald Trump, has played a crucial role in these developments. However, the real challenge lies ahead: establishing lasting peace.
The Achievements So Far
Trump and his negotiators have achieved substantial progress, including the return of all living hostages held by Hamas since October 7, 2023. Although Gaza is devastated, formal hostilities have ceased, marking a significant step forward amidst the humanitarian crisis.
The Road Ahead: Establishing Lasting Peace
Achieving lasting peace requires bold political decisions from all parties involved, not just rhetoric but tangible changes on the ground. A viable roadmap is essential for peace or conflict management to have any chance in the Middle East.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict necessitates reconciliation between the two peoples claiming the same land. Are there majorities in Israel and among Palestinians willing to reconcile? Can Trump compel both sides to stay the course, and will the US have the perseverance to see it through? A lasting commitment to non-violence and mutual recognition of each other’s right to exist, similar to the Oslo Accords, is crucial.
The immediate need is a political process with a set timeline and steps agreed upon. Without this, there can be no peace, nor will the international community finance Gaza’s reconstruction, another pressing priority.
The Palestinian Predicament in Gaza
Two million Palestinians in Gaza face homelessness and lack of medical care. This situation, particularly among a predominantly young population, breeds fertile ground for radical Islamists like Hamas or other anti-peace terrorist groups.
The question remains: who will govern and administer Gaza, ensure security, and disarm Hamas? Which Palestinian leader can transform the diplomatic fiction of a “Palestinian State” into reality, creating a peaceful and secure neighbor to Israel? The extent of de-militarization required for such a state is also uncertain.
Arab governments may struggle to commit materially or politically to a roadmap lacking a credible process for establishing a Palestinian state, despite the Gaza war demonstrating unresolved Palestinian issues’ long-term dangers for them.
Israel’s Role and Challenges
The current Israeli government must decide whether to accept the historical Palestinian territory’s partition, including the West Bank and Gaza. The Jerusalem and Temple Mount issues remain complex due to the region’s deep connection to Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. Religious leaders will always play a decisive role in political negotiations, especially towards the end of potential peace talks.
Trump’s undertaking is monumental, shifting from campaign promises of reducing US global policing to tackling what may be the most challenging international politics issue. With its immense power, the US is uniquely positioned for success. However, whether Trump possesses the patience and resilience required remains to be seen. A failure would exacerbate Middle East instability, a concern for neighboring Europe.
Key Questions and Answers
- What are the achievements so far? Trump and his negotiators have returned all hostages held by Hamas and ceased formal hostilities in Gaza.
- What is required for lasting peace? Bold political decisions, tangible changes, and a viable roadmap are necessary from all parties involved.
- What is the situation for Palestinians in Gaza? Two million Palestinians face homelessness and lack medical care, creating conditions for radicalization.
- Who will govern and administer Gaza? The question remains unanswered, with no clear path to a peaceful, secure Palestinian state.
- What role do religious leaders play? Given the region’s deep connection to Judaism, Christianity, and Islam, religious leaders will play a decisive role in political negotiations.
Author: Joschka Fischer, former German Minister of Foreign Affairs and Vice Chancellor (1998-2005), was a leading figure in the German Green Party for nearly two decades.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 1995 – 2025
www.project-syndicate.org
