Introduction
Last week, the President announced that Mexico’s poverty had decreased by 13 million people due to the social policies of the 4T. While it’s undeniable that, as the INEGI director stated, there has been a noticeable increase in family income for certain population sectors, it’s essential to understand the nuances behind these claims.
The Role of Salary Increase and Government Transfers
Two factors have contributed to this income growth: the increase in the minimum wage, which should be acknowledged not only towards the government but also the private sector. Additionally, government monetary transfers in the form of stipends, scholarships, or assistance have increased many Mexicans’ purchasing power, thanks to taxes and some loans taken by the government.
The Complexity of Measuring Poverty
However, the situation isn’t as straightforward. Historically, two institutions have approached poverty evaluation differently. The INEGI focuses on broad aggregates, reporting raw data that needs further processing for meaningful assessment. Meanwhile, the CONEVAL evaluated various collected numbers from diverse sources, measuring their accessibility against constitutional rights.
The Disappearance of CONEVAL and INEGI’s Efforts
With the CONEVAL’s disappearance, INEGI took on compiling numbers. In one of their income-related questions, they discovered that 13 million people had left poverty. However, other areas worsened:
- Healthcare deficit remains severe, with healthcare access care declining from 20 million in 2018 to 44 million in 2024, leading to increased reliance on clinics near pharmacies, indicating healthcare privatization and higher medicine costs.
- Enrollment in various educational stages has dropped by over 20%, particularly in secondary and higher education.
Additional Concerning Trends
Other worrying trends include:
- The population with social deficiencies (constitutional rights) increased from 25 million in 2018 to 27 million in 2024.
- The vulnerable population due to social deficiencies rose from 31 million in 2018 to 42 million.
Long-term Viability and Sustainability Concerns
The most critical aspect is the long-term viability of these social policies. Without growth and low investment, these policies cannot sustainably generate income. Continuously borrowing to distribute money is unwise and risky, especially as our northern neighbor becomes increasingly inflexible.
Presenting numbers without proper evaluation is misleading, creating shadows that require further examination to be understood accurately.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What factors contributed to the claimed poverty reduction? A: The increase in minimum wage and government monetary transfers played significant roles.
- Q: How do the INEGI and CONEVAL differ in evaluating poverty? A: INEGI focuses on broad aggregates, while CONEVAL evaluates various collected numbers against constitutional rights.
- Q: What concerning trends were identified alongside poverty reduction claims? A: Healthcare and education enrollment declines, along with increases in social deficiencies and vulnerable populations.
- Q: Why is long-term viability a concern? A: Without growth and low investment, these policies cannot sustainably generate income, making continuous borrowing risky.
