Introduction
Claudia Sheinbaum, the President of Mexico, unveiled the Strategic Plan for Pemex 2025–2035, which serves as a declaration of principles, an energy roadmap, and a political manifesto. This comprehensive plan outlines a narrative that intertwines ideology, institutional diagnosis, efficiency promises, and a vision where Pemex becomes a national development lever. Notably, this is the first time such an extensive plan has been presented with explicit goals of fiscal discipline, operational efficiency, and energy self-sufficiency.
Ambitious Goals and Strategies
The plan’s objectives are ambitious, aiming to increase crude oil, natural gas, fertilizer, and petrochemical production while reducing fuel imports. It also seeks to revitalize exploration, transform the corporate structure, and ensure fair prices through “Gasolineras del Bienestar.”
- Increase production of crude oil, natural gas, fertilizers, and petrochemicals
- Reduce fuel imports
- Revitalize exploration efforts
- Transform the corporate structure
- Ensure fair prices through “Gasolineras del Bienestar”
The plan proposes a deep institutional reengineering, including reintegrating subsidiaries, simplifying the tax regime, reducing debt to suppliers, signing new risk-sharing contracts with private entities, and resuming exploration in high-complexity geological zones. It emphasizes adopting new seismic technologies, precise drilling, and significant production from 2029 onwards.
Recovering Value Chains
The plan aims to recover value chains for fertilizers, ammonia, ethane, methane, and aromatics—key compounds for manufacturing plastics, synthetic fibers, detergents, paints, solvents, and pharmaceutical products. This reestablishes petrochemicals and fertilizers as crucial components of an industrial strategy.
Although the energy transition and environmental issues are barely mentioned, the plan includes goals such as eliminating routine gas burning by 2030 and utilizing wastewater in wells.
Challenges Ahead
Despite its technical ambition, the plan overlooks corruption, ignoring that Pemex has not only suffered from poor decisions but has also been plundered internally. How can investment be attracted and efficiency guaranteed without acknowledging and combating its historical corruption?
Debt Reduction
One of the major challenges remains Pemex’s debt. Between 2008 and 2018, its indebtedness surged by 130% without increased production or modernization. Many resources were squandered or lost in opaque contracts. However, since 2024, the company has started gradually reducing its debt. This trend must be maintained through fiscal discipline, targeted investments, and improved governance.
Sheinbaum stated that Pemex will no longer require financial support from the Treasury by 2027. According to the Integral Capitalization and Financing Strategy, also presented yesterday, Pemex’s debt has decreased by 16% since 2018 and is expected to be 26% lower than the 2019 balance by 2030. The Derecho Petrolero para el Bienestar will decrease from 65% to 30%, and the non-associated gas portion will drop from 12%.
Fitch Ratings recently upgraded Pemex’s credit perspective from negative to stable, indicating that the company has gained a margin of maneuver to restructure debt, sustain key investments, and reduce its reliance on the public purse to stop being a liability and become a genuine development lever.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the main goal of Pemex’s strategic plan? The primary objective is to transform Pemex into a national development lever by increasing production, reducing imports, revitalizing exploration, and ensuring fair prices.
- How does the plan address fiscal discipline and operational efficiency? The plan explicitly sets goals for fiscal discipline, operational efficiency, and energy self-sufficiency.
- What are the challenges Pemex faces according to the plan? Despite its ambitious goals, the plan overlooks historical corruption within Pemex and the significant debt burden. The company must maintain fiscal discipline, targeted investments, and improved governance to reduce debt.
- How has Pemex’s financial situation improved according to recent credit perspective upgrade? Fitch Ratings upgraded Pemex’s credit perspective from negative to stable, indicating that the company has gained a margin of maneuver to restructure debt, sustain key investments, and reduce its reliance on the public purse.
