Introduction
A Cuban shared a joke with a CNN reporter, highlighting the resilience of Cubans in the face of adversity. On January 29, 57% of the island experienced power outages during peak demand hours, illustrating the severe energy crisis.
Current Energy Situation
Nine out of sixteen thermoelectric production units are non-operational. The situation with hydrocarbon-based power plants lacks official information, but the numbers are expected to be similar. In Havana, there are illuminated pockets amidst darkness. Outside the capital, it’s common to experience 20 hours of daily power outages.
The situation is dire and will worsen. Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on anyone supplying oil to Cuba will exacerbate the energy crisis. The island requires 110,000 barrels daily to function normally but only produces 40,000 and receives 38,000 from Venezuela, a fraction of what it used to get during the Chávez era.
Mexico’s Role and Future Oil Supply
In 2025, Mexico supplied approximately 19,200 barrels daily, a 121% increase from 2024. Mexico plans to halt shipments in 2026, leaving Cuba with even fewer oil options.
To understand the gravity of living with limited gasoline in Cuba, consider that private citizens may wait up to 29 days to fill their tanks. An app is used for scheduling these turns.
Marco Rubio’s Influence
Marco Rubio, a Cuban-American and U.S. state department official, has been influential in shaping Trump’s Cuba policy. Though not explicitly eloquent, his statements offer insights into the administration’s approach.
Rubio has expressed a desire for regime change but suggested no direct intervention like in Venezuela. This hints at potential economic strangulation through tariffs and financial transaction restrictions, along with limiting flights.
Economic Impact
Cuba’s economy has plummeted 15% over the past four years, facing hyperinflation, scarcity, and collapsing key industries amid mass migration. The population has shrunk from 11 million to around 8.5 million since 2021, when 2.7 million people left the country.
Tourism received 4 million tourists in 2019 but now struggles below 2 million. Cuba was once the world’s largest sugar exporter, but production has crumbled due to fuel, machinery, and fertilizer shortages.
President Miguel Díaz-Canel acknowledges the crisis, attributing it to “accumulated distortions, adversities, difficulties, and our own errors, exacerbated by an extremely aggressive external encirclement.”
Future Restrictions
Oil supply restrictions could soon be accompanied by financial transaction limitations and reduced flight numbers. Annually, around $2 billion in remittances arrive in Cuba. Foreign investment has plummeted, and credit is nearly impossible to secure for a country struggling to generate foreign currency.
Currently, ten airlines serve Cuba, with three being Mexican: Aeroméxico, Volaris, and Viva Aerobus. Their continued operation remains uncertain.
Trump’s Plan and Military Buildup
Trump’s timeline suggests ending the Cuban regime by 2026, though the method and timing remain unclear. The castro regime is indeed weakened, further strained by Maduro’s capture. However, expecting a simple resolution requires caution.
The National Defense Council approved plans and measures for a state of war on January 11, with military exercises and citizen training for external aggression. People control and repression are intensifying.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the current energy situation in Cuba? Nine out of sixteen thermoelectric production units are non-operational, and hydrocarbon-based power plants lack official information. Power outages have affected 57% of the island during peak demand hours.
- How will Trump’s policies impact Cuba’s energy supply? Tariffs on oil suppliers and potential financial transaction restrictions will exacerbate Cuba’s energy crisis, which already struggles to meet daily requirements.
- What role does Marco Rubio play in U.S.-Cuba relations? As a Cuban-American and state department official, Rubio has influenced Trump’s policy towards Cuba, suggesting economic strangulation and limited direct intervention.
- What is the state of Cuba’s economy? The Cuban economy has contracted 15% over the past four years, facing hyperinflation, scarcity, and collapsing key industries amid mass migration.
- What future restrictions might Cuba face? In addition to oil supply limitations, Cuba could experience financial transaction restrictions and reduced flight numbers.
