Introduction
“Demography cannot be stopped.” James Turrell.
On Children’s Day, it is worth reflecting on the demographic trends in our country and their potential short-term, medium-term, and long-term effects, which will bring about a profound transformation and risks that need to be addressed.
Demographic Changes in Mexico
In just nine years, from 2014 to 2023, the number of births in Mexico dropped from 2.46 million to 1.82 million, a 26% decrease and 643,000 fewer births. The fertility rate, measured as the number of registered births per 1,000 women of childbearing age, fell from 74.2 to 52.2—a nearly 30% reduction.
This decline is attributed to the variation in the childbearing-age female population base, which amplifies the percentage decrease.
There is a significant correlation between a state’s economic development level and its birth rate, although migration also plays a role in population behavior.
In 2023, Chiapas led with a birth rate of 100.1 (nearly double the national average), followed by Guerrero with 69.5 and Oaxaca with 62.3. In contrast, the Ciudad de Mexico and Yucatan had birth rates of 34.1 and 40.8, respectively, both below the replacement population rate of 2.1.
According to some studies, by 2050 (within 25 years), 151 countries will have a replacement population rate below 2.1, indicating a potential population decline.
Migration’s Impact
Migration is an essential factor increasingly considered in population growth models for some countries. In Europe and the United States, certain population segments have fertility rates below 2.1, but migration effects balance or even boost the population growth.
A 2020 Lancet study revealed that Mexico is facing potential population decline in the near future, causing a proportional aging of the population and a reduction if not offset by migration effects.
Historical Context
For decades, the global narrative was that overpopulation was a significant challenge for countries, especially those once deemed underdeveloped. In the 1970s, discussions about famines and negative economic impacts on lower-income groups were linked to uncontrolled population growth.
Countries like Mexico implemented specific mechanisms to gradually decrease the population growth rate. In 1970, Mexico’s fertility rate was 43.91%, with an average of 6.55 children per woman; by 2020, the fertility rate dropped to 15.57%, and the average number of children per woman fell to 1.91.
Economic Implications
One recognized impact of these demographic changes is economic growth. Many forecasting models incorporate economies’ innovation capabilities but typically assume constant population growth.
However, in high-income countries, declining fertility rates below the replacement level lead to population decline, affecting innovation, productivity, workforce size, and consequently, economic growth prospects.
This is one explanation for Japan’s loss of economic dynamism and innovation.
These factors must be analyzed, as they present challenges requiring anticipation and addressing.
Key factors like education are crucial for Mexico, as increasing the average population’s educational level positively impacts productivity, economic growth, and living standards in an unequal country like ours.
Key Questions and Answers
- What are the demographic changes in Mexico? Between 2014 and 2023, the number of births dropped from 2.46 million to 1.82 million, with a fertility rate falling from 74.2 to 52.2.
- How does migration impact population growth? In some countries, migration compensates for lower fertility rates, leading to population balance or growth.
- What are the historical context and challenges? Historically, overpopulation was a significant concern. Mexico implemented measures to decrease its population growth rate, which has led to potential future decline.
- What are the economic implications of demographic changes? Declining fertility rates below replacement levels can negatively affect innovation, productivity, workforce size, and economic growth prospects.
