Introduction to Bait and its Parent Company, Walmart
Bait, an internet and mobile telephony virtual operator under Walmart’s umbrella, has reported a substantial discrepancy in user figures between its reports to the Mexican Stock Exchange and those submitted to the Federal Telecommunications Institute (IFT).
Walmart’s Report vs. Bait’s IFT Declaration
Walmart claims that Bait has 20 million active users, a figure disclosed to investors through the Mexican Stock Exchange at the end of Q1 2025. However, the telecommunications regulatory body, IFT, reports only 8,392,318 lines.
Bait has 57.57% fewer active users than Walmart’s report to the Mexican Stock Exchange.
Relevance of User Figures Discrepancy
This discrepancy is significant because investors in capital markets rely on relevant events and information from issuers to make investment decisions.
Moreover, the discrepancy is relevant in the context of Altán Redes’ rescue by the Mexican government during the Lopez Obrador administration, totaling approximately $388.1 million (around 7,300 million Mexican pesos at the 2022 exchange rate, assuming an average of 18.8 pesos per dollar).
Initially, the figures released by Bait and Altán Redes differed.
Bait’s seemingly successful figures have raised doubts among other fixed and mobile telephony operators.
The company should address these doubts to clarify the situation.
For the Mexican government, rescuing Altán Redes—the only private rescue under Lopez Obrador’s administration—was crucial due to its strategic importance for rural connectivity.
Under Claudia Sheinbaum’s current administration, internet for all is a policy priority, and Altán Redes will play a significant role.
It is essential for the Mexican government to know the true user figures of the most important mobile virtual operator.
Economic Discourse vs. Reality
The Mexican economy is stagnant, with three consecutive months of job losses and informal employment continuing to grow.
Why, if we are told the economy is doing well, are we actually faring so poorly economically?
Government officials consistently assert that the Mexican economy is strong and solid.
However, official data contradicts this message, showing negative figures for economic growth and employment.
Although Mexico avoided a technical recession in Q1 2025, the economy remains stagnant.
GDP fell by -0.6% in Q4 2024.
In 2025, the national economy has shown marginal growth.
In Q1 2025, according to the Quarterly Estimation of Internal Product (EOPIBT) published by INEGI, Mexico’s economy grew 0.2% on a quarterly basis (compared to Q4 2024) and 0.6% on an annual basis (compared to Q1 2024).
Most analysts’ forecasts are pessimistic.
The Mexican government, through the Secretariat of Finance led by Edgar Amador, projects a growth rate between 1.5% and 2.3%, averaging 1.9%, by the end of 2025.
The lack of growth dynamism translates into poor employment figures.
By June, according to social security statistics, job creation was evident that economic growth remained stagnant.
In June, 46,378 jobs were lost, marking the third consecutive month of job losses.
In H1 2025, only 87,286 jobs were created. At least 800,000 jobs are needed annually.
In May, labor informality reached its highest level in 18 months.
In May, 188,702 people joined informal employment while formal employment saw a decline of 117,000 positions.
Informal employment accounted for 54.9% of the total employed population, its highest level since October 2023 when it was at 55.4%, according to the National Occupation and Employment Survey (ENOE).
With this outcome, in absolute terms, informal employment has continued to rise throughout 2024.
The labor informality rate increased by 0.2 percentage points monthly.
These figures clearly demonstrate economic stagnation and its impact on formal and informal employment…
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the discrepancy between Bait’s user figures reported to Walmart and IFT? There is a significant difference: Walmart claims 20 million users, while IFT reports only 8.4 million lines.
- Why is this discrepancy important? Investors rely on accurate user figures for informed investment decisions. The discrepancy also raises questions about the Mexican government’s rescue of Altán Redes.
- What is the current state of the Mexican economy? The economy is stagnant, with job losses in three consecutive months and growing informal employment.
- What are the official growth projections for 2025? The Mexican government projects a growth rate between 1.5% and 2.3%, averaging 1.9%.
- What is the current level of labor informality in Mexico? Informal employment accounts for 54.9% of the total employed population, with a monthly increase in informality rate.
