Trade Disputes Impact Mexican Tomato Industry
Recent high-profile meetings between Donald Trump and world leaders, including Vladimir Putin and European Union officials, have dominated global headlines. However, in Mexico, a less-publicized story reflects the same tensions caused by the new political order: the blow to Mexican tomatoes, illustrating the harsh reality of relying on a single market.
Trump’s Trade Policy Directly Affects Mexican Tomatoes
Under new tariffs and regulatory hurdles, Mexican tomato exports to the US have plummeted by over 20%, leading to job losses, reduced incomes, and social instability in Sinaloa, Baja California, and Michoacán. The impact has crossed the border: approximately 47,000 jobs in the US have been lost in tomato distribution, transportation, and packaging due to increased costs and reduced trade flow. In Mexico, up to 200,000 jobs linked to tomatoes could be at risk if the export decline continues.
Export Declines in Mexican Agriculture
Alongside tomatoes, cerviche (-2.7%) and berries (-6.6%) have also experienced setbacks. In the first half of 2025, Mexican agricultural exports to the world amounted to $27,352 million, 4.4% less than in the first half of the previous year.
Resilience in Mexican Agriculture
Despite these challenges, the Mexican agricultural sector remains resilient. Other crops have compensated and even thrived. Avocados led with a 23.5% increase in value and a 5% rise in volume, hinting at a record-breaking $4,000 million annual value. Lemons surprised with a 33% jump in value and 29% increase in volume, driven by US demand for soft drinks and cocktails. Tequila solidified its position with a 6% volume growth, while beef cattle advanced 7% in volume and 2.6% in value. Even within the berries category, strawberries showed a near 25% volume increase, offsetting the decline in blueberries and raspberries.
A Tale of Two Agricultural Sides
This patchwork reveals two sides of the same coin. On one hand, a key product like tomatoes crumbles, threatening thousands of jobs; on the other, other crops expand and establish Mexico as a leading agroexporting nation. The stark contrast is both clear and concerning: Mexican agriculture has become non-homogenous, with distinct winners and losers depending on the whims of Trump’s trade policy.
The Urgent Need for Diversification
The conclusion is inescapable. While the tomato industry suffers from a single Trump policy decision targeting votes from US tomato producers in California, Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia, Texas, and Arizona, the rest of Mexican agriculture demonstrates that it still has room for expansion and diversified markets in global trade. However, a sector heavily reliant on one product and market remains vulnerable. This crisis underscores the urgent need for diversification: more crops, more destinations, and added value.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the main issue affecting Mexican tomato exports? New tariffs and regulatory hurdles imposed by the US under Trump’s trade policy have led to a more than 20% decline in Mexican tomato exports to the US.
- How have other Mexican agricultural exports been impacted? While tomatoes, cerviche, and some berries have experienced setbacks, other crops like avocados, lemons, tequila, and beef cattle have shown growth.
- What does this situation reveal about Mexican agriculture? The sector has become non-homogenous, with distinct winners and losers depending on US trade policies, highlighting the urgent need for diversification.
