Introduction
As the closing of the third quarter (Q3) 2025 financial reporting period approaches, Mexico’s market pulse is becoming clearer. With 71.4% of the companies that make up the S&P BMV IPC index having already reported, results show a mix of stability and caution. Only 8.0% have exceeded expectations, while 60.0% are in line and 32.0% have shown disappointing figures compared to estimates.
Market Performance Overview
On average, commercial and service companies’ sales in the IPC increased by 4.4% year-over-year in Q3 2025. Bank and financial groups’ revenues rose by 8.2% due to interest income, while Fibras saw a 25.3% increase, reflecting a steady but consistent recovery.
Ebitda: The Key Indicator
Ebitda, a crucial indicator for assessing issuers’ operational health, has shown improvement under the closely watched FV/Ebitda multiple. A positive surprise exceeding 5% compared to estimates can boost a company’s stock price, while a drop below 5% may severely penalize it.
Key Players and Their Performance
Gruma
Gruma has been a standout in Q3, with $292.7 million in Ebitda, $1,635.6 million in net sales, and $44 million in investments. The company has demonstrated strong adaptability to the international environment, driven by global demand and its US operations.
Banorte
Banorte has maintained its strength in margins and operational efficiency, though growth has been more modest. Its focus on digitalization and risk management remains its key strategy in a high-interest rate, competitive banking environment. Analysts from Grupo Financiero Monex estimate a 10.3% income growth and a 3.1% increase in net profit for the bank in Q3 2025.
Walmart de México
Walmart de México has shown resilience in consumption, with stable sales and operating profit. Its multi-format strategy and expansion in e-commerce continue to position it as a retail leader, though Ebitda growth has been moderate.
Peñoles
Peñoles faces pressure from international metal prices. Despite a strong production position, results have fallen short of expectations, reflecting the mining sector’s volatility.
Grupo Bolsa Mexicana de Valores
Grupo Bolsa Mexicana de Valores reported financial results below analysts’ consensus expectations. This was mainly due to a slowdown in capital and swap volume, along with operational pressures and net income, exacerbated by the Mexican peso’s appreciation.
Financial Performance Breakdown
The BMV group’s revenues increased by 45 million pesos, a 4.2% annual growth, driven by higher information services and local and global custody sales. However, net profit contracted 4.1%. Capital volume rose 0.3%, futures 92.3%, but swap demand dropped by 71.2%.
Valuation and Future Outlook
With a current P/E ratio of 11.3, below the 5-year average of 13.7, this may indicate a perception of lower future growth. The mixed performance across different operational segments shows a more dependent structure on information services and custody, while derivative products like swaps face a significant decline.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is Ebitda? Ebitda, or Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization, is a crucial indicator of a company’s operational health.
- Who are the key players mentioned? Gruma, Banorte, Walmart de México, Peñoles, and Grupo Bolsa Mexicana de Valores are the main companies discussed.
- What is the current market outlook? The market shows mixed performance, with some companies exceeding expectations while others fall short. Ebitda remains the most reliable thermometer for corporate performance.
