Introduction
The global positioning of countries and their prospects is largely determined by what they possess. The United States, for instance, accounts for 75% of the world’s stock market capitalization and attracts 70% of the $13 trillion global private equity investment in stocks and bonds. This is due to its extensive and liquid capital market, leadership in innovation, and status as the world’s largest economy.
US Debt and International Holders
The US government, however, carries a $36 trillion debt, equivalent to 124% of its GDP. China is the most significant creditor among these liabilities, a country with which the US maintains a strained relationship. Other nations also hold US debt in their central banks, private banks, and among investors.
Global Imbalances
Population Growth in Developing Countries
The world faces significant imbalances, one of which is population. The UN estimates that by 2100, the global population will reach 11.2 billion, far exceeding the current 8.1 billion. The challenge lies in the fact that 90% of the world’s population resides in impoverished nations experiencing high population growth. In Africa, 50-60% of the population is under 25 years old. These demographics demand increasing employment and food supplies, exacerbated by Trump’s tariffs and migration restrictions.
Impact of USAID Cancellation
The cancellation of the USAID program has severe consequences for low-income sectors in the US and impoverished nations. Established by President Kennedy as “soft power,” USAID supported marginalized sectors. Its disappearance, according to the medical journal Lancet, could lead to over 14 million deaths by 2030 due to lack of external aid. Former President Obama warned, “The closure of USAID will go down in history as a colossal mistake.” Former President Bush also acknowledged, “With USAID, we benefited our nation as 25 million people who would have died now are alive.”
Ideological Radicalization
These events are radicalizing ideological positions. Geopolitical conflicts and their consequences have led to the emergence of two ideologies: state capitalism and market capitalism.
Reconfiguration of Global Power
BRICS and Their Influence
Groups of countries, like the BRICS, are competing for global influence and bypassing international institutions. Comprising 45% of the world’s population and 35% of its GDP, China stands out as the world’s second-largest economy, the largest exporter of goods, and sells 80% to non-US countries. In 2024, China had a $1 trillion trade surplus and is the leading creditor for loans and investments. Russia, with its nuclear power, energy wealth, and territorial ambitions, is another key player in the BRICS group, now defensive against Trump’s threats.
European Union’s Strengthening Position
The European Union remains a significant and cohesive power, directing resources to regrow with improved technological independence and military strength against Putin’s threats and Trump’s distancing from NATO.
